A strong Q4 will see the solar industry
continue to grow strongly in 2014. IHS figures released today show that 32% of
annual installations will occur in the quarter, totaling 14.4
GW.
NPD Solarbuzz also forecasts a strong Q4,
however it's considerably more bullish, expecting 19.5 GW of solar to be added
giving an annual figure of close to 50 GW.
The IHS analysis shows the U.S. and Chinese PV markets continue to
drive global PV demand, with the
countries installing 2.3 GW and 5 GW of solar respectively in Q4 – accounting
for 50% of installations in the quarter.
U.S. installations have been “ramping up
throughout the year” with 33% of the annual figure coming in
Q4.
The utility scale sector continues to dominate
the Chinese market, with 8.5 GW in 2014, while the rooftop market continues to
fail to meet government expectations. IHS believes that the official, revised,
target of 13 GW will be met by year’s end.
The relatively slow start to 2014 was attributed
to declines in Europe, reports IHS,
despite strong results from the UK and Japan. The decline of the German and
Italian PV markets continued,
with installations dropping 1.2 GW and 900 MW respectively. Germany will install
2.1 GW in 2014 and Italy 0.8 GW.
The
UK shines
In a result that few would have imagined only
two years ago, the United Kingdom has registered the strongest growth in 2014.
With between 3.0 GW to 3.2 GW expected for the year, the UK will be the fourth
largest market, behind China, Japan and the U.S. In a pattern that is familiar
to the solar industry, the rush
to complete installations before the ROC subsidy scheme is wound up will see 3.1
GW installed in the country in Q4 2014 and Q1
2015.
Looking to 2016, IHS expects global market
growth to slow to 16% in 2015, resulting in a market of 53 GW. Growth in China
is forecast to slow to 10% in the year. 2014 will be the peak year for Japan,
with 9.1 GW installed, before declining in
2015.
In December 2013 IHS
had forecast 40-45 GW of installations
for the year, but later revised this upwards to 47 GW.IHS’ full report is the Q3
2014 PV Demand Market TrackerArticle From PV
Magazine
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