With
U.S. president Barack Obama announcing on Monday the investment tax
credit (ITC) will be removed from U.S. solar projects at the end of 2016, the
nation's leading role in solar in the Americas – accounting for 89.1% of
installations in North and South America in 2013, according to GlobalData –
could be at risk.
It
remains to be seen whether the ITC announcement will spur a solar rush to claim
tax credits before December 31, 2016 in the States and, for now at least, solar
appears to be in rude health, according to GTM and the SEIA's Solar Market
Insight Year-in-Review 2013 report.
A
joint press release issued today to announce the report's publication stated
solar installations climbed 41% on 2012 last year, to 4.75 GW with 2.1 GW arriving in
the final quarter alone, making the October-to-December 2013 period 60% bigger
than the previous quarterly record, set in Q4, 2012.
Solar
within sight of mainstream
Shayle
Kann, vice president at GTM Research, said the fact solar was the second biggest
source of new electricity generating capacity in the U.S. last year –
trailing only natural gas as it accounted for 29% of new capacity compared to
10% in 2012 – indicated mainstream status is in sight.
Last
year's $13.7 billion worth of 140,000 installations took the U.S. to a
cumulative 440,000 systems generating 12.1 GW and was helped
by continued falls in the price of U.S. solar systems to $2.59/W in the
final three months of the year.
California again led the way with more than half of new
installations and, although Arizona dipped to 421 MW from the
710 MW seen in
2012, North Carolina, Massachusetts and Georgia more than doubled their combined 2012 total
with 633 MW of
installations last year as California, Arizona, North Carolina, Massachusetts
and New Jersey accounted for 81% of new U.S. solar.
6 GW to be added in
U.S. this year
Despite
fears surrounding the removal of the ITC, the report's authors are predicting a
26% rise in U.S. installations this year, with residential systems leading the way as almost 6 GW are added for
a cumulative total of almost 20 GW.
GlobalData's
long-term predictions, outlined in a press release yesterday to publish its new
report, cite even more impressive figures with the inclusion of South America.
GlobalData's
North and South America Solar PV Market Outlook to 2030 – Installed
Capacity, Market Size, Risk Analysis, Market Saturation and Company Profiles
report predicts the Americas will see installations rise from 13.1 GW last year to
138.8 GW in 2030 with
output rising from 21 TWh to 234 TWh.
But
with the U.S. accounting for 89.1% of last year's output – ahead of Canada (8.5%) and Brazil (0.2%) – senior analyst for power, Prasad
Tanikella, sounded a warning note with the comment: "The US and Canada are among
the global leaders in terms of renewable power generation. Their growth has been
facilitated primarily by support mechanisms, provided by federal and state
governments."
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