Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has released its
latest data on solar
PV installations under the country's feed-in
tariff (
FIT). The data was compiled by the Agency for
Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) and regard facilities installed last year up
to November 30, 2013.
According to the report, in the first eight months
of the fiscal year (April to November 2013) Japan installed 4.585
GW of new solar
PV capacity, of which 3.632
GW were utility and commercial installations and 953
MW were household installations.
Cumulative
installed
solar PV capacity in Japan has now reached 11.858
GW. Compared to other types of renewable energy
technology, solar
PV proves to be by far the most widespread
technology in the country. Thus, cumulative installed small and medium hydro,
wind, biomass and geothermal capacities by the end of November last year were
9.605
GW, 2.672
GW, 2.418
GW and 0.501
GW respectively.
Analyzing the solar PV trendThe most obvious trend
stemming from METI's latest report is the dominant growth of the solar
PV market. Fiscal year 2013 is expected to be a
huge success: between April 1 and November 30, Japan installed 4.585
GW compared to 1.673
GW installed between July 1 2012 and March 31 2013.
The introduction of the Japanese
FIT in July 2012 doubtless had a positive
impact on these installation rates.
The second most important trend
derived by the recent METI report is the confirmation of the Japanese
solar PV market's shift from household installations
dominating the market in the fiscal year 2012 and before the introduction of the
FIT scheme, to utility and commercial
installations clearly taking control of the market from April 2013 onwards.
Specifically, according to METI's report, in the first nine months after
the introduction of the
FIT scheme, solar
PV grew by 969
MW in home installations. Similarly, before the
introduction of the
FIT, Japan boasted about 4.7
GW of installed household photovoltaic systems. The
corresponding figures for non-household installations during the same periods is
0.7
GW and 0.9
GW respectively.
However, since April 2013 this
trend has totally shifted. In the eight months ending November 30th,
non-household systems installed a total 3.632
GW, while household installations added just 953
MW of solar
PV.
Big companies have entered the energy
market installing large photovoltaic parks at a fast rate. According to data
provided to
pv magazine by Izumi Kaizuka
of the RTS Corporation, Japan, as of January 2014 there were 53 large scale
projects, above 20
MW each, under construction or planning.
Strong market despite lower FITsIn February
METI announced it has set up a working group for operating the
FIT scheme, "aiming to study and discuss
improving the current operation of the scheme." The working group held its first
meeting on February 18.
Japan's Photovoltaic Energy Association
participates as an observer to the group, which METI says "will hold several
meetings to discuss and compile the results of the meetings before the end of
fiscal year 2013, expecting the operation of the new scheme to start in fiscal
year 2014."
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicted last month
that the solar
FIT in Japan will be cut by 14% from April due to falling operation and maintenance
(O&M) costs.
Deutsche Bank AG has also published new research data
that finds the Japanese solar market will remain strong despite its predictions
for a solar
FIT cut of around 10% from April. Izumi
Kaizuka is also of the opinion that the
FIT will be cut by 10%, not the 14% reported
by BNEF.
The main obstacles for the
PV sector's further growth in Japan, Deutsche
Bank argues, remain the
grid
limitations to accommodate newly installed capacity, labor and equipment
shortages, and not a reduction in the
FIT. However, despite these problems the bank,
expects Japan to install around 6 to 7
GW of new solar
PV in 2014.
The bank also estimates that
residential
PV system costs will fall from ¥465/watt
(US$4.57/watt) in the first quarter of 2012 to ¥385/watt (US$3.80/watt) in the
fourth quarter of 2014. On the contrary, Deutsche Bank says, the price of
non-residential systems has changed slightly, meaning
FIT reductions will be based on the
residential systems' price differences.
Deutsche Bank's data is in line
with METI data as compiled and provided to
pv
magazine by RTS Corporation.
RTS Corporation adds the cost for
non-residential applications in the fourth quarter of 2014 will reach ¥305/watt
for 1
MW systems or larger, ¥294/watt for systems between
500 KW to 999KW, ¥324/watt for systems between 50 KW to 499 KW, and ¥369/watt
for systems between 10 KW to 49KW.
Ministry hearings under way On February 14
METI published the results of its investigation concerning the status of solar
photovoltaic projects registered under the country's
FIT scheme. The reason for METI undertaking
this investigation stems from the fact that, while the number of approved
projects under the
FIT scheme by October 2013 had reached 24.5GW,
only 5.7
GW were actually commissioned.
METI promptly
launched an investigation looking at 4,699 solar
PV projects, each larger than 400 KW, for which a
¥294/KWh tariff has been approved. These projects totalled 13.32
GW.
Of these, METI reports, only 1.1
GW (corresponding to 1049 projects) were commissioned,
while another 0.9
GW corresponding to 419 projects were voluntarily
suspended.
Of the rest, 3.94
GW — or 1,588 projects — had the land contract
finished and the equipment ordered; 2.58
GW, or 784 projects, had either finished the land
contract finished or ordered the equipment, but not both; 1.77
GW, or 187 projects, had not finished the land
contract yet neither the equipment was ordered, but were negotiating with
utilities regarding interconnection issues or had required additional time due
to issues including land decontamination and the projects being in disaster
zones; 2.88
GW, or 571 projects, had no land contracts or
equipment ordered; and 0.15
GW, or 101 projects, did not submit the necessary
documents to be included in the METI inquiry.
The Japanese ministry said
that it will hold administrative hearings to be concluded by August 31 2014.
Those projects that have not met the specified technical criteria by then, METI
said, will have their certifications revoked.
Although not 100% certain,
RTS Corporation added that the METI investigation could result in up to 6
GW of projects being cancelled.
Article From PV Magazine
