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2015年9月15日星期二

Dubai opens 800 MW PV tender, commissioning set for 2018

The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) has officially opened an 800 MW solar PV tender. It is the country’s third, and will see 800 MW added to the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, of which work on the second 200 MW phase is currently underway.

Bids for the latest tender will close on September 29. Meanwhile, commissioning of the 800 MW is set to commence, in phases, in 2018. All generated energy will be purchased by DEWA under a 25 year PPA.

The first 13 MW of the solar PV went online in April 2013, and the second phase is expected to be completed in early 2017. First Solar was selected to supply the modules for the first two phases. A consortium, led by Saudi-based ACWA Power and TSK, a Spanish engineering and construction company, was also recently taken on to develop, construct, own and operate the project.

The second, 200 MW tender set a world record levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) figure of just 5.8 US cents/kWh. Commenting on the record at the Global Solar Leaders Summit 2015, running between September 14 and 16 in Dubai HE Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD & CEO of DEWA, said, "This enabled us to increase the percentage of renewables in Dubai’s energy mix target from 1% to 7% by 2020 and from 5% to 15% by 2030, and raise the capacity of phase three of the Solar Park to 800MW based on the Independent Power Producer model." He added, "This is a landmark achievement that will put the UAE at the forefront of renewable and clean energy production in the region."

The solar park also features two testing facilities, one for PV and the other for CPV. "The centre is currently testing around 25 modules of PV panels from global manufacturers to check different properties and analyse the results to utilise them in research and development," continued Al Tayer.

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India: Andhra Pradesh 500 MW PV tender oversubscribed 10-fold

According to Bridge to India, the first NSM bid under India’s new government has attracted enormous interest with 5.5 GW bid from 30 developers. Six, including SunEdison and Softbank, bid for the whole 500 MW. Five, meanwhile, have made bids for 200 MW.

The consultancy says 28 bidders will now move into a second round of, open online, bidding, expected in the next month. This is the first time open online bidding has been used in India’s solar sector, writes Bridge to India, which comments, "If similar bids in India for telecom spectrum and coal mine allocation are any indicator, this mechanism will lead to a further intensification of competition."

"Aggressive" tariffs of below INR 5/kWh are expected by some, although the consultancy says it remains skeptical in light of the high solar park infrastructure costs. Saying that, it adds that the recent tariffs of INR 5.09/kWh –INR 5.98/kWh seen in Punjab were "an eye-opener."

Other solar auctions are also said to be attracting a lot of attention, with the 420 MW tender in Rajasthan having reportedly already seen 80 developers expressing interest. The 420 MW is set to be spread across six 70 MW projects in Bhadla Solar Park Phase II under the NSM phase II, batch II, tranche I.

EU PVSEC: Stagnating global PV installations till 2020 or 100 GW cumulative capacity?

The high number of attendees is in stark contrast to the partly warning, partly skeptical outlook on the future of the European solar industry, as communicated by several of the speakers at the opening conference of the 31st EU PVSEC, held yesterday in Hamburg.

"It will be difficult for a European industry to be competitive, when there is no European market," stated Paolo Frankl, head of the renewable energy division at the International Energy Agency (IEA). He further raised the question of why decentralized distributed power supply is taking off across the world, and not in Europe.

Responding to his own question, Frankl said that in Europe, several factors have come together: there is less sunshine compared to other parts of the world; energy demand will not rise; there is supply overcapacity; and problems with network integration. And it would not exhaust all potential, which lies in self-consumption. There is a need, he continued, for new business models, like those in Australia, which is, for example, more advanced in this sector.

Global installations

Overall, the IEA sees a slowing down in the global solar PV market. In two weeks, it will publish its new report, however a few figures were already available: in 2015, it anticipates that 45 GW of new solar PV installations will be seen.

In the IEA’s main scenario, it doesn’t see this figure rising, although in its positive scenario it says 55 GW of new annual installations could be reached. "I’m not saying that it can’t be more," said Frankl, "but obstacles must be removed." This is much less than the 57 GW the analysts at IHS expect to see

Eicke Weber, director at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, went even further, stating that a cumulative 100 GW capacity is realistic. It is just a question of how much of a role Europe will play, he said.

Most important

2,200 participants have already registered at this year’s EU PVSEC, and more are expected, said the organizers. As such, last year’s figures – where 3,000 participants registered during the week – could be exceeded. The adjacent solar tradeshow begins today, Tuesday.

In the words of Stefan Rinck, CEO of Singulus Technologies amd chairman of the event, the EU PVSEC has established itself as the most important conference worldwide for PV experts. This also helps to explain why attendee numbers are so high. Of those pre-registered, 28% came from Germany and 5% from France and the Netherland, respectively. Of the non-European participants, Japan leads with 7%, followed by China, the U.S. and Korea, at 4% each.

German PV equipment manufacturers see orders triple

Despite a sluggish start to the year, Q2 has seen an uptick in the fortunes of Germany’s solar PV equipment manufacturers, with turnovers increasing 52% on Q1. Overall, Germany is said to have cornered over half the market for equipment in H1 2015.

Compared to Q2 2014, orders have almost tripled, says VDMA, thus bringing them in line with those seen in Q2 2011. While no specific figures were provided, VDMA says Asia accounted for 41% of all new orders, followed by the U.S. with 26%, Europe with 17% and Germany with 16%.

"The order situation of the German Photovoltaic machinery industry gives us every reason to be optimistic. Leading manufacturers invest in technology and production solutions again. Consequently, we expect a continuation of the economic recovery over the next few months," commented Florian Wessendorf, MD of VDMA Photovoltaic Equipment.

Overall, East Asia is said to represent the most important market for Germany’s equipment manufacturers, with turnover there totaling 46%. The U.S., meanwhile, accounted for 31%, and Germany and Europe, 13% and 11%, respectively.

At 60%, solar cell production equipment continued to represent the strongest segment, followed by equipment for polysilicon and wafer production, at 19%. Thin film equipment and equipment for crystalline backend module production accounted for 13% and 8%, respectively.

Although the U.S. trade tariffs on solar equipment from China and Taiwan are continuing to impact can still be felt by Germany’s equipment manufacturers, Peter Fath, MD of RCT Solutions GmbH and Chairman of VDMA Photovoltaic Equipment, says, "our customers have accepted the situation," with many having either relocated or added new production facilities elsewhere.

While Germany’s equipment manufacturers are enjoying a strong market share, VDMA says competition is intensifying, particularly among Asian counterparts.

pv magazine has contacted the VDMA for more details.

US: ITC extension will support steady solar growth, finds BNEF, SEIA report

US: ITC extension will support steady solar growth, finds BNEF, SEIA report

Should the U.S. Investment Tax Credit (ITC) be extended out to 2022 at the current 30% rate it will support the installation of an additional 22 GW of solar PV capacity, finds a report published today by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

The independent analysis was conducted by BNEF at the behest of the U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and posits a future scenario whereby the ITC runs for a further five years. Under such an extension, solar across the U.S. would grow by around 69 GW – some 22 GW more than the 47 GW projected should the current ITC expire, as it is currently poised to do, at the end of 2016.

By January 1, 2017, the ITC will have dropped from 30% to 10% for commercial-scale systems, and will end altogether for the residential sector. Should no extension be forthcoming – and the SEIA and others in the industry are pulling hard for that not to happen – then industry activity is expected to drop sharply in 2017, but not before a scrambled rush towards the end of 2016.

According to BNEF’s forecast, 2017 will experience a year-over-year drop in installations of around 8 GW, plumbing installation depths not seen since 2012 before rising steadily again the following year.

In contrast, a five-year extension of the ITC – for both commercial and residential and enacted by mid-2016 so as to avoid an end-of-year rush – would serve to maintain the current pace of solar growth. The extension would cut across all segments, says the SEIA, with utility-scale solar growing by 31 GW between 2016-2022, sun 10 GW more than the no-ITC scenario. For commercial, growth would be 5 GW greater, and residential would benefit by a further 7 GW.

Cumulatively, a 30% ITC out to 2022 would see the U.S. hit 95 GW of installed solar PV capacity, generating some 144,000 TWh of electricity – enough to power 19 million homes and account for 3.5% of the country’s energy mix.

The dreaded ITC "cliff", currently unavoidable in 2017, would also be less steep after 2022, says the BNEF report, with deployment only set to fall by 10% as opposed to a projected 71% in 2017.

From an employment and economic perspective, the SEIA suggests that 80,000 solar jobs could be lost by 2017 if the ITC is not extended, and 100,000 overall, whereas an extension would not only protect those jobs but also add 61,000 roles in the industry, delivering 32% greater employment over that five-year period, which would help yield up to $124 billion in total investment as opposed to just $39 billion if the ITC expires.

"The good-paying jobs of more than 100,000 Americans and thousands of U.S. companies – many of them small businesses – are at risk if the ITC is not extended," said SEIA President and CEO Rhone Resch. "As the voice of the solar industry, SEIA will not rest until Congress fully understands the importance of this critical policy. The time to act is now."

UK solar cuts will cost country in the long run, says REA

The Renewable Energy Association (REA) of the U.K. has studied the potential impact of the government’s proposals to cut the feed-in tariff (FIT) by as much as 87% by January 1, 2016, and found that the move could result in a net loss for the country’s coffers.

In estimating how much money will be lost in terms of tax, national insurance revenue and welfare payments from the 15,000 jobs that are predicted to go if the government’s cuts are enacted, the REA has found that the HM Treasury will miss out on £94 million ($145 million).

When set against the proposed savings to the Department of Energy and Climate Change’s (DECC) proposed budget cat until the end of the incentive, this works out as a net loss for the government – and is further evidence of a confused, short-sighted and ideologically driven assault by the Conservatives on the U.K.’s solar industry.

The 15,000 job losses is a conservative estimate, with some projections suggesting that as many as 25,000 jobs could go following the latest changes to the solar support scheme. The estimates from the REA do not include the loss of business rates for local councils, nor VAT and corporation tax paid by solar companies that may have to downsize or struggle to survive.

The REA said it was "disappointed" that after a decade of government support for the expansion of solar power, the industry is in danger of "being tripped at the final hurdle" before it can reach grid parity, which is expected in 2020 according to a REA/KPMG report.

"The government’s sudden reversal of support for solar and other emerging renewables technologies ignores the substantial benefits that a healthy renewables industry provide to U.K. employment and the public purse," said REA head of policy and external affairs, James Court. "Our recent solar report shows how the technology can reach grid parity, but this relies on continued government support."

Another strand of the REA’s attack on the government’s decision is the negative impact it will have on further U.K. innovation – a secondary benefit of a thriving solar industry. With solar suppressed, recent strides in the U.K.’s storage sector will suffer, slowing further development in innovation and cost reduction, warns REA’s senior policy analyst Frank Gordon.

"Not only do the government proposals risk a damaging boom-and-bust scenario that might see the [FIT] scheme shut early, but they also damage the prospects for energy storage, which ministers have said they support," said Gordon. "Storage and renewables together will aid local communities to make independent decisions around their energy supplies and save money. Cutting government support now jeopardises this innovative future."

Clouds on the horizon as Solar Power International opens in Southern California

This year's Solar Power International trade show got off to a strong start. Based on registration numbers, organizers are expecting 15,000 visitors, a 25% increase over the 12,000 who attended the previous year.

The mood at the opening day of the show was doubtless influenced by developments in the prior week. First, U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden confirmed that he will speak at the conference. Second, on the last day of the session, California's legislature passed a bill to require that the state's utilities procure 50% of their electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030 – the second-strongest mandate in the nation.

The show also comes during a boom time for U.S. solar, particularly in the utility-scale segment. In its latest quarterly report, GTM Research estimates that over 5 GW of solar is currently under construction in the United States, driven by a rush to complete projects before the drop-down of the investment tax credit (ITC).

However, this boom is inseparable from a pending collapse in the market come 2017 if the ITC is not extended. In the conference's opening session, Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) spoke in no uncertain terms about the danger that the industry was facing, calling ITC extension the industry's “biggest policy challenge yet.”

“I think you need to look at the wind industry to know what a dramatic impact this can have,” warned SEIA CEO Rhone Resch, referring to the multiple times that the Production Tax Credit has expired.

Resch cited numbers from a new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which predicts that U.S. installed solar capacity will fall from over 11 GW in 2016 to 3.4 GW in 2017 if the ITC is not extended. With a five year extension, the report finds a much less severe impact from a similar drop-down of tax credit levels in 2022.

The report also finds that the pending decline in the ITC in 2017 will be accompanied by the loss of 80,000 jobs, or more than half the current total. With fallout from related industries, this number would be more than 100,000 jobs.

During the conference's opening session, SEIA officials called on those in the audience to get active in the campaign for ITC extension, including by joining the organization. Resch also revealed that there is currently a bill in the U.S. House to extend the ITC for five years and allow projects under construction by the end of the term to access the credit, with 40 co-signers.

However, he notes that this legislation is unlikely to pass on its own, and will probably be incorporated into either an extenders package or an omnibus bill, subject to the political uncertainties of congressional horse-trading.

In the opening session SEIA also spoke to the Obama Administration's Clean Power Plan. The organization notes that while the plan is a very positive step for solar, that the real test will be implementation at the state level.

“There's 50 states worth of work to make that a reality,” noted SEIA Board Chair Nat Kreamer, who also serves as CEO of Clean Power Finance.

Furthermore, the effects of the Clean Power Plan will not be immediate. “You're really not looking at anything until 2020, 2022 or beyond,” explained Kreamer.

These warnings did little to dampen the crowd's enthusiasm. It is still boom time in the U.S. solar industry, even if clock is ticking. Resch also notes that the ITC extension is already starting to affect the industry, as no one is planning larger solar projects that cannot be completed in sixteen months' time.

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