The
high number of attendees is in stark contrast to the partly warning, partly
skeptical outlook on the future of the European solar industry,
as communicated by several of the speakers at the opening conference of the 31st
EU PVSEC, held yesterday in Hamburg.
"It
will be difficult for a European industry to be competitive, when there is no
European market," stated Paolo Frankl, head of the renewable energy division at
the International Energy Agency (IEA). He further raised the question of why
decentralized distributed power supply is taking off across the world, and not
in Europe.
Responding
to his own question, Frankl said that in Europe, several factors have come
together: there is less sunshine compared to other parts of the world; energy
demand will not rise; there is supply overcapacity; and problems with network
integration. And it would not exhaust all potential, which lies in
self-consumption. There is a need, he continued, for new business models, like
those in Australia, which is, for
example, more advanced in this sector.
Global
installations
Overall,
the IEA sees a slowing down in the global solar PV market. In two weeks, it
will publish its new report, however a few figures were already available: in
2015, it anticipates that 45 GW of new solar PV installations will be seen.
In
the IEA’s main scenario, it doesn’t see this figure rising, although in its
positive scenario it says 55 GW of new annual installations could be reached.
"I’m not saying that it can’t be more," said Frankl, "but obstacles must be
removed." This is much less than the 57
GW the analysts at IHS expect to see
Eicke
Weber, director at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, went
even further, stating that a cumulative 100 GW capacity is realistic. It is just
a question of how much of a role Europe will play, he said.
Most
important
2,200
participants have already registered at this year’s EU PVSEC, and more are
expected, said the organizers. As such, last year’s figures – where 3,000
participants registered during the week – could be exceeded. The adjacent solar
tradeshow begins today, Tuesday.
In
the words of Stefan Rinck, CEO of Singulus Technologies amd chairman of the
event, the EU PVSEC has established itself as the most important conference
worldwide for PV experts. This also helps to explain why attendee numbers are so
high. Of those pre-registered, 28% came from Germany and 5% from France and the
Netherland, respectively. Of the non-European participants, Japan leads with 7%,
followed by China, the U.S. and Korea, at 4% each.
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