Solar Energy-Solar Mounting Systems

2015年1月19日星期一

Utility scale PV to exceed 10 GW in 2014 – Wiki-Solar

Wiki-Solar.org released its preliminary utility-scale solar cumulative and annual installed capacity figures today, finding that 2014 will represent another year of record growth for the sector with installations far surpassing 10 GW for the year.

Traditionally strong markets in North Africa, Asia and Europe continue to see projects being developed, being joined in 2014 by South America and Africa.

South Africa has been the leading African market in 2014, with the 94 MW Sishen power plant representing the largest on the continent. In South America, Chile is the outstanding market with 13 PV power plants having been connected to the grid so far this year – according to Wiki-Solar records.

Wiki-Solar defines a PV power plant as any being over 4 MW in capacity. Wiki-Solar founder Philip Wolfe indicates that its records already show 10 GW of new capacity to have been reached in 2014, but that figure is likely to grow when it publishes its final data for the year in March 2015.

While continued growth in North America and particularly strong results in Japan and China were global highlights for the PV power plant sector in 2014, the year also saw a significant shift in Europe. After registering a declining utility scale solar market in 2012 and 2013, 2014 saw that trend turning around. A bumper year in the UK, which now boasts a cumulative capacity in excess of 2 GW in solar farms, and steady growth in France are the drivers of the European turnaround.

2015 and beyond

Looking to 2015, Wiki-Solar’s Wolfe said the leading markets are set to be the U.S., China, India with supporting roles played by Chile, Japan and South Africa.

“There will be pressure in the States [U.S.] to complete projects in the pipeline, because the future for tax incentives becomes uncertain from 2016,” said Wolfe. “Europe’s best market in the short term will remain the UK, which has now topped 2 GW and is likely to leapfrog India to the world’s number four market by the end of March. This position may prove temporary, because large-scale solar becomes ineligible for the UK’s Renewables Obligation from April 1. Perhaps France, which has recently started Europe’s largest plant at Cestas will then take up the running.”

Wolfe expects South America to surpass Africa in 2015 or 2016, particularly as development in Brazil begins to support the booming Chilean pipeline.
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Japan: 17.5 GW of projects set to be left stranded

Japan’s solar sector has had a stellar two years of growth, however it appears likely that a sizeable part of the 69.4 GW of projects that have gained approval under the country’s FIT program will not be built because of grid constraints. RTS Corporation has come to this conclusion after a meeting of a grid capacity working group comprised of Japanese utilities and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), which administrates the solar FIT program.

Seven utility districts submitted potential grid hosting capacity for PV projects in their respective jurisdictions and the capacity of solar projects that have received approval, both with and without grid access agreements. In figures compiled by RTS Corporation, it appears that while 69.4 GW of PV projects, totally around 1.37 million arrays, have received approval for FIT payments by METI, only 51 GW of that is likely to be grid connected. This leaves 17.336 GW of projects potentially stranded without grid connection.

In what may be an important caveat, some of those 17.5 GW of projects may go ahead if “unlimited grid curtailment” or battery storage capacity is included as a part of the project.

The utility regions where projects under development are likely to be left without grid connection include those administered by Kyushu Electric Power (with approximately 9.8 GW of grid capacity shortfall), Tohoku Electric Power (5.4 GW), Hokkaido Electric Power (1.7 GW), Shikoku Electric power (421 MW), Hokurku Electric Power (252 MW) and Okinawa Electric Power (250 MW).

Grid capacity constraints have been expected in Japan for some time with last week’s WG determination being the first official indication of the size of the grid shortfalls. RTS Corporation has previously indicated that utilities may be keen to keep some grid capacity in reserve for shuttered nuclear capacity.

Remote curtailment under FIT program

Proposed changes to the FIT program have also been mooted at the WG meeting. These include projects that may be looking to expand capacity or may look to change PV component suppliers. Interestingly remote curtailment capabilities may be required of PV arrays in an expanded number of utility districts. Previously this had only applied in the Hokkaido Electric Power area, and it now includes a further five districts.

RTS Corporation describes the remote curtailment capability as follows: “Obligation to install inverter with remote control function. (It takes time to develop the system and tentatively conventional inverters are allowed to install if project developers committed to additionally install the system.)” The proposed changes to the FIT program have been opened for public submissions, with January 9th 2015 set as the closing date for submissions.

While grid constraints potentially threatening 17.5 GW of projects is significant, RTS Corporation expects more than 50 GW to be installed under the current FIT program and given these constraints.

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India to bankroll 1 GW of solar projects with $158 million

The Indian government has said it will provide as much as INR 10 billion ($158 million) to state-run companies in order to build 1 GW of grid-connected solar PV projects in the next three years, Bloomberg reported on Monday.

The companies will have to use PV cells and modules manufactured in India in order to secure funding, Bloomberg said, citing a government statement.

State-run companies such electric utility NTPC Ltd., National Hydroelectric Power Corp Ltd. (NHPC) and the Indian Railways are planning to build solar projects in the country. NTPC, which has already pledged to invest close to $1 billion in renewable energy in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, last week announced that it planned to install solar PV panels atop all of its thermal power plants as part of the 1 GW push over the next three years.

Likewise, Coal India Ltd. (CIL), the largest producer of fuel in the country, has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Solar Energy Corporation India (SECI) to develop 1 GW of solar PV plants across the country.

In addition, the government said it would waive statutory clearances for projects located in remote areas where land is inexpensive.

India has so far installed 3 GW of solar power as part of the country's Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, which aims to reach 22 GW by 2022.

New Mexican utility proposes rooftop solar tax

The Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) electric utility wants to hit the owners of rooftop solar with a tax on new systems.

PNM yesterday (Thursday) proposed a rise in electric rates of $107.4 million to the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission and also requested a monthly solar rooftop tax of $6/kW to lessen the burden of paying to connect distributed generation solar which is currently laid on non-solar households.

According to the 2014 PNM rate case filing on the utility's website, such a charge would amount to an interconnection fee of $18-30/month for the average rooftop system.

The rate base of $2.4 billion requested by the U.S. state's largest electric power provider, a rise of $585 million on the last request, in 2010, is needed to pay for capital investments including the $79 million bill for four new solar centers by 2016, said PNM in its documents.

Solar bill more expensive than gas

The cost of that 40 MW of new solar compares unfavorably with the $56 million invested in the natural gas plant at La Luz, which will have the same generation capacity, but is a long way short of the $163 million cost of buying leases for Unit 2 of the Palo Verde nuclear generating station.

PNM also admits in its filing that rooftop solar systems have led to a reduction in costs, along with the energy efficiency measures taken by the utility and offered by modern appliances and the fall in demand across a state economy still recovering from the economic crisis.

If approved, the solar tax would apply to new rooftop systems installed from 2016 onwards.

$10 billion Green Climate Fund draws mixed response

$10 billion Green Climate Fund draws mixed response

As global climate negotiations (CPO20) continue in Lima, Peru, pledges to the Green Climate Fund have surpassed $10 billion. Yesterday both Belgium and Australia announced support for the fund, with the countries pledging €51.7 million (US$64.4 million) and $200 million respectively. The Fund is designed to contribute to global climate mitigation strategies by providing assistance to developing countries.

“The Fund will promote the paradigm shift towards low-emission and climate-resilient development pathways by providing support to developing countries to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate change,” its manifesto reads.

“The $10 billion threshold reached here at COP20 is a landmark achievement,” said Hela Cheikhrouhou, executive director of the Fund. “I warmly welcome the new pledges from Belgium and Australia and congratulate them for their leadership,” she said, thanking them also for their active role on the Board of the Fund.

70 developing countries have already designated local authorities to work in partnership with the Fund, with 77 of them having already requested support.

The global solar industry could play a significant role in supplying projects supported under the Fund. Responding to the $10 billion pledge milestone, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) said that solar is a good fit to provide renewable energy solutions in the developing world.

“EPIA welcomes the recent announcement of new countries pledging to the Green Climate Fund, EPIA’s Benjamin Fontaine told pv magazine. “The news is good for the solar industry, as solar is an obvious solution to reduce CO2 emissions and fight climate change, in particular in developing countries where power demand is increasing fast and where solar is already competitive with conventional sources."

America’s Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) has also welcomed the Green Climate Fund. After the U.S. made its $3 billion pledge last month, SEIA said it applauded President Obama’s support of the Fund.

“This fund will help U.S. businesses, including solar companies, pursue projects in developing nations. U.S. participation represents an opportunity to bring new technologies and innovations to these nations, help the global environment and expand the development of clean, renewable energy worldwide,” said Rhone Resch, president and CEO of SEIA.

Eicke Weber, Director of Fraunhofer ISE told pv magazine that while more pledges to the Fund were expected, $10 billion is not a negligible amount.

“I say it is a step in the right direction,” said Weber. “Of course, many people say that it is less than was originally promised. But when you get used to the mechanism, you can build on it, because after all you need time to develop programs that are to be sponsored by the funds of this Green Climate Fund. So it makes sense, as long as you have the perspective that this is an amount that needs more donations.”

Not nearly enough

However not all renewable energy advocates have been supportive of the Fund. Co-author of Germany’s renewable-enabling Renewable Energy Sources (EEG) legislation and German Greens energy spokesman Han-Joseph Fell has blasted the Fund as being inadequate in the face of the likely costs of climate change.

“For global tax payers, the Green Climate Fund is a nothingness,” wrote Fell in a mailing to subscribers. “$550 billion dollars of public subsidies annually go to fossil energy, which is about $100 per ton of CO2 emissions. From the public sector each year about 55 times as much money is spent to promote climate change [through fossil fuel subsidies] than the Green Climate Fund can provide in its entire term.”

“More than 300 times greater than the Green Climate Fund are the private investments that total annually more than $3,000 billion in investments in fossil energy to fund the construction of new oil, gas, coal supply.”

Fell called on governments to recognize the need for “truly effective climate finance” such as: FITS for renewable energy, an end to fossil fuel and nuclear subsidies, tax breaks for renewable energy and a “gradually rising” carbon taxation.

In responding to Fell’s remarks, Fraunhofer’s Eicke Weber concurred, but he added that as a new mechanism, the Green Climate Fund could become a catalyst for change.

“Here we are creating a new instrument and we are starting from scratch,” said Weber. “And I must say, I'm still positively pleased that we now have this first 10 billion. This is a drop in the bucket, but a fairly thick drop. With $10 billion you can realize a fair number of projects. Now I would first look forward and see with which mechanism you can support the best, [what are] the most productive projects from this money, to really get things moving and accelerate the global energy revolution.”

Turkey: construction to begin on first licensed PV projects

Although Turkey has all the right conditions for PV power plants, administrative hurdles have proven a major obstacle to the construction of solar farms larger than 1 MW. On Wednesday Turkey's energy agency, the EPDK, finally awarded the first licenses for construction, for two projects approved last May. The projects have a combined capacity of 13 MW.

The licenses mean that work on the solar farms can finally begin, in news that has been welcomed by Yalç?n Adiyaman, the deputy general manager of Halk Enerji. Adiyaman's company was awarded a contract to construct a 5 MW solar farm. The president of the EPDK presented the permit to Mustafa Atilla, Halk Energji's CEO.

According to Adiyaman, photovoltaic plants with a total capacity of 39 MW are currently connected to the grid in Turkey. Projects larger than 1 MW require a license from the EPDK. Adiyaman told pv magazine that the licensing procedure takes several years.

Officially, license applications for PV power plants with a total volume of 8.9 GW were submitted in June of 2013. Once submitted, licenses are granted through a tendering process. The EPDK planned on awarding contracts for 600 MW of photovoltaic capacity.

"We hope that by issuing this first license, the EPDK is clearing the way for the 580 MW of pending licenses," says Adiyaman. In 2015, he expects expansion of PV power plants in Turkey could be as high as 500 MW. Overall, that would mean a market volume of some 1 GW for 2015, including smaller unlicensed projects.

"After many years of waiting, Turkey has a real opportunity in 2015 to see a significant volume of systems installed and a photovoltaics market develop," says Adiyaman. After all, by then a dedcade will already have passed since Turkey approved its renewable energy legislation.

Multi-GW PV plans shape India's bold solar strategy

Delays caused by this year's election and the rumblings of the ongoing anti-dumping case may have slowed India's annual PV installations for 2014 (forecast to come in at just over 800 MW), but a renewed urgency at the upper echelons of government and business promises to reinvigorate India's solar sector next year.

State-run electric Utility NTPC – which has already pledged to invest close to $1 billion in renewable energy in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh – has this week announced that it is to install solar PV panels atop all of its thermal power plants as part of a 1 GW RE push over the next three years.

Renewable Energy Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed to parliament that the plan will also include solar panel installation on all thermal plants currently under construction, plus a complete retrofit of NTPC’s existing fleet.

Meanwhile, Coal India Ltd. (CIL), which is the largest producer of fuel in the country, has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Solar Energy Corporation India (SECI) to develop 1 GW of solar PV plants across the country.

Goyal also confirmed this project during a written consultation at parliament, stating: "Recently, CIL has signed a MoU with SECI to install 1,000 MW of solar power plants in different parts of India, including Andhra Pradesh and Telengana."

With just 2.2 MW of solar PV under its belt, this agreement represents a sizeable solar commitment for CIL, and is indicative of the changing tide of attitude currently sweeping India, particularly since pro-solar PM Narendra Modi was elected to office in May.

Goyal has previously called both CIL and NTPC "massive polluters" that "must give back to the society", and will no doubt welcome these announcements this week.

Analysts expect clean energy investment in India to reach $100 billion in the coming years as the country transitions from polluting – and increasingly expensive – coal to solar and wind energy.

The Jawajarlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) is being constantly reviewed and updated to reflect developments in the fast-paced solar sector. Its success has helped India reach the 3 GW cumulative capacity mark this year, and should drive installations beyond 5 GW by the end of 2015, says Raj Prabhu of Mercom Capital.

"We are forecasting 2015 installations to double year-on-year, reaching approximately 1,800 MW annually," wrote Prabhu in this month's December issue of pv magazine.

Prabhu also revealed that India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) is also working on a plan to "install a staggering 100 GW of solar in five years”, a goal that Prabhu considers will prove challenging due to the vast amount of grid infrastructure investment required to make this feasible.

Ready to spend
However, at the recent climate talks in Lima, Peru, India’s Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar announced that the country has “$3 billion in the kitty” for investment in infrastructure upgrades and clean energy projects designed to reduce the country’s dependence on fossil fuel.

Javadekar added that Modi has given him the green light to spend even more than that. "We are investing, on our own, $100 billion in clean energy projects," he told the audience at the climate talks this week. "India is committed and ready to play its part in the international fight against climate change."

As the third-largest polluter globally after China and the U.S., India's commitment to tackling climate is also a responsibility it must bear, but Javadekar warned that emissions will need to grow in line with economic expansion as the country fights to eradicate widespread poverty.

Hence, discussions around curbing emission limits were off the table, with Javadekar eager instead to publicize India’s efforts to switch to cleaner sources of energy. A $62 billion plan outlined at the talks revealed that $1.4 billion will be steered towards solar energy projects.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India's emissions are expected to rise by 34% by 2020, and perhaps even double from today's levels by 2030.

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