Solar Energy-Solar Mounting Systems: 十月 2015

2015年10月24日星期六

Building Energy sees 'huge potential' in South Africa

Italian renewable energy group Building Energy looks set to remained active in South Africa after recently playing host to the country’s minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane at the company’s headquarters in Milan.

Building Energy, a globally integrated independent power producer, has developed and manages more than 30 projects in South Africa and Central Africa, including the 81 MW Kathu solar farm in the Northern Cape, one of the biggest PV plants on the continent. The group also operates wind, biomass and hydro-electric projects in the country, including the 14 MW biomass plant in Mkuze, the first and largest biomass plant in Africa.

In April, Building Energy won preferred bidder status in the fourth round of South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPP) for the development of a 140 MW wind project in Roggeveld, an area between the Northern and Western Cape Provinces, and a 4.7 MW small-hydro project in Kruisvallei, in the Free State Province.

Nkoana-Mashabane said South Africa was “focusing its attention on the environment, maintaining all the goals that were set for the improvement of the energy mix and the increase in the use of clean energy, and will be one of the main players in the upcoming COP21. We are aware of the role that foreign companies, like Building Energy, play in South Africa and we’re working to keep all our commitments in order to guarantee that their investments will profit.”

Building Energy has also been active with a number of initiatives in the country. In May, the company sponsored the African Utility Week and Clean Power Africa in Cape Town, a global conference and trade exhibition for the power and water utility industry. It has also been a key participant in the South Africa-Italy Summit for the past two years.

Building Energy CEO Fabrizio Zago called Nkoana-Mashabane’s visit to the company’s Milan headquarters a “tangible sign of the good relationship” the group has with South Africa. The country “represents a market with a huge potential for companies operating in the renewable energy sector” thanks to its rich resources and the governmental programs for clean energy development, he added.

Building Energy has a current pipeline in 24 countries with more than 2.9 GW and generative assets being built over the next two years of more than 500 MW.

In June, the company announced a $200 million plan to build two solar PV plants in the northern Egyptian area of Benban with a combined capacity of 50 MW.

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New York State quietly lifts the cap on net metering

New York State quietly lifts the cap on net metering

New York is making headlines for its bold moves to restructure its distribution grid and utilities through the Reforming the Energy Vision (REV) process. And as the details of this ambitious multi-year process are hammered out, the state is making it clear that distributed solar will continue to move forward under existing policies.

Without fanfare, on October 16 the New York Public Service Commission (NYPSC) ruled that utilities must continue to enroll solar PV systems in the state's net metering program, regardless of existing caps, until the REV process determines a new way to value the electricity those systems produce.

In the order, NYSPC references previous rulings which find that net metering should not be put on hold until a successor program can be implemented. This decision was spurred by a petition from Orange and Rockland Utilities, which warned that it was close to a program cap of 6% of load and requested to stop accepting applications when that level was reached.

Despite the language about a successor program, NYPSC has indicated a preference for not only keeping but expanding a form of net metering during the REV process.

“The convention of net metering has proven a very successful tool to support the growth of the solar industry, and Staff recommends that it continue to be used,” noted NYPSC staff in a REV white paper issued in July.

“Further, a bill-crediting transactional mechanism, similar to that used in net metering, should be considered for distributed energy resources, beyond those to which net metering already applies, that transact with the system either through actions that respond to DSP requests for service, or through the ability to inject power into the system.”

However, it also indicated that the valuation would be different. “The level of compensation should be more accurately defined for larger projects,” stated NYPSC staff. “The current convention of crediting at the average retail rate may be either too little or too much based on the nature of the resource and its location.”

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Demand begins to exceed supply for multicrystalline silicon PV

For the last four years, the global solar PV market has been in a state of persistent oversupply along the value chain, which pushed down prices mercilessly and drove many manufacturers out of business.

However, on Thursday EnergyTrend published an analysis which adds to a growing consensus that this oversupply is ending. The company reports that prices are rising for all multicrystalline silicon solar products from wafers to cells to modules and that the output of tier one PV module makers has been purchased through the end of 2015.

EnergyTrend cites strong demand from the world's three largest markets: The U.S., China and Japan. This warning comes only days after GTM Research issued a report describing a module capacity shortfall which is already beginning. GTM expects the global module excess capacity ratio to fall below 30% in 2015, the first time it has been this low in many years, and for this to lead to shortages as early as 2016.

GTM also says that it is starting to see price impacts. "We're definitely seeing impacts on a regional basis, meaning markets that are high-demand markets, especially in Q4," GTM Research Solar Analyst Jade Jones told pv magazine.

"In the U.S. we are going to see more price stability instead of decline," explains Jones. "For China, we are likely to see prices increase quarter-over-quarter in Q4."

Equipment sales began responding to these changing circumstances as early as the second quarter of 2015, with SEMI reporting a PV equipment book-to-bill ratio of 1.58, its highest level in four years. GTM Research says that this is just the beginning.

"In general, what we are going to need to see in the next few years is capacity investments being more aggressive along the value chain," predicts Jones.

EnergyTrend says that for multicrystalline products, wafers are seeing the biggest price increases. This follows on a warning by wafer maker Green Energy Technologies three weeks ago that there may not be enough multicrystalline silicon wafer capacity to meet demand in 2016.

Notably, EnergyTrend reports very different circumstances for monocrystalline silicon products. The company estimates monocrystalline wafer prices have fallen more than 10% since the beginning of the year, and says that monocrystalline silicon wafer capacity of 14 GW is well above demand projected under 10 GW.

EnergyTrend expects demand for monocrystalline products to increase in 2016, stating that greater use in utility-scale solar projects and increased maturity of passivated emitter rear contact (PERC) technology for mono cells will both be factors.

The company also says that prices have not fallen as much for n-type mono wafers as compared to p-type.

SMA hits 1 GW in Thailand

While still facing numerous challenges, as competition remains fierce in the inverter segment, SMA continues to rack up milestones on the back of its long-standing position in the market. The company announced today that it has supplied 1 GW of installations in Thailand, which it says is the fourth largest market in the APAC region.

Thailand’s PV market has seen some disturbance due to political upheavals and financial uncertainty, however solar's competitive advantage in supplying the country with affordable and clean power solutions on a distributed basis has resulted in a significant solar market for over a decade. Indicative of this, Thailand has supported large scale PV rollout through a number of support programs for both large scale and rooftop solar arrays.

The country’s National Energy Policy Council initiated up to 800 MW of projects under the Government Agencies and Agricultural Cooperative solar farm program in July 2013. The program will license projects up to 5 MW in size, which will receive a FIT of 5.66 Baht/kWh (US$0.16/kWh). Applications for the program close at the end of the year.

“2015 has been a successful year for solar farm projects in Thailand and with the Government Agencies and Agricultural Cooperative solar farm program as well as emerging residential and commercial markets SMA expects to see further growth in this region,” said Country Manager Suntisuk Mathinapitak. SMA opened its Thai subsidiary in 2011.

Marthinapitak added that SMA has built a reputation in Thailand based on leading and robust technology and local service.

SMA upgraded its earnings outlook for 2015 last month, as it continues to cut costs, particularly in its operations in Germany.

Tate's rooftop PV shines, U.K.'s solar outlook darkens

It was a cloudy morning in London, but Tate Modern's star shined. London's famous gallery of contemporary art was unveiling its new rooftop PV system, donated to the gallery by Solarcentury, the British solar firm that organized the event, which also included a line-up of presentations addressing the U.K.'s solar future.

Tate's rooftop PV system is located on the building's turbine hall – which before being converted into an art gallery used to house a power plant . This is the second "celebrity" installation that Solarcentury has completed in London, following the PV system installed at the Blackfriars Bridge right in the heart of the city.

Does a gifted solar rooftop make Tate Modern a green establishment, given that it also receives generous sponsorships from BP and other fossil fuel companies? That question was left hanging in the air from a Guardian newspaper journalist who asked specifically if there is a conflict of interests at play. Rather wisely, Tate had decided not to send a representative to the event.

A bleak, or simply cloudy, day for U.K. solar?
London's sky is, unsurprisingly, cloudy today. However, Darren Johnson, chair at the London Assembly's Environment Committee, put it more accurately. "This might be a black day for U.K. solar since the consultation on the amendment of the feed-in tariffs (FITs) ends today," Johnson said.

Johnson laid bare that London lags behind in solar rooftops compared to other parts of the country and that the city needs to develop a certain plan and strategy to boost the industry, similar to the ambitious plans laid out by New York. Johnson's conclusions were based on a recent report published by London's Assembly titled "How London's homes could generate more solar energy." Other participants also agreed that London grows faster than ever and urgently needs a green infrastructure plan.

What a pity the Committee's recommendations and findings come in a time that the U.K. government appears to have decided to phase solar power out of the country's energy mix.

Volume matters
Following the government's policy decision to remove the Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) for new PV plants, to scrap the grandfathering mechanism for most of the PV project applications lined up in the old ROC process and to utterly change the accreditation and the size of the FIT scheme, the U.K. solar industry is expecting consolidation and radical shake-up.

Targeting specifically the proposed FITs, Paul Barwell, president at the U.K. Solar Trade Association, told the event that these are unworkable since they lead to zero percent investment return and consumers will never be able to borrow capital at such low interest rates to complete PV projects.

Also worrying are the installation caps the government has suggested, Barwell added. To reduce the cost of solar and transition the industry safely to a zero subsidy future, U.K. solar needs both higher tariffs and caps, Barwell argued.

The first will allow rooftop PV to be investable, the second will allow volume, and thus enable PV cost reduction through the supply chain.

At the moment, what we hear from many small to medium installers is that they have been forced to inform their employees that should the new FITs apply in January, they might lose their jobs.

Solarcentury's CEO Frans van den Heuvel told the event under the proposed FITs the company will cancel £16 million of projects in the U.K. and will perhaps need to reduce slightly its workforce. Job cuts though will mainly come via other parts of the supply chain, e.g. in sub-contractors that Solarcentury collaborates with.

Future U.K. solar business perspective
Naturally, the discussion revolved around the business perspectives for U.K.'s solar sector. The future business perspectives for solar, both in the U.K. and abroad, will need to be developed around the independent power producer (IPP) model, argued Ben Warren, head of energy and environmental finance at Ernst and Young’s U.K. energy team. Businesses all over the world start to generate or purchase electricity directly on their own. This is a trend that cannot be reversed by any regulator because the technology allows it.

Asked by pv magazine, Warren said net metering is also a viable solution for the U.K. The British energy regulator should allow it. And even if net-metering does not provide the remuneration sums that FITs did in the past, it will transmit long-term certainty that customers will value, Warren added.

Five years ago, a 1 MW PV system cost £5 million. Today it costs £700,000, Warren reminded attendees – food for thought for all involved as the morning ticked by, and London’s dense canopy of grey cloud dispersed, just a little bit.

Tate's rooftop PV shines, U.K.'s solar outlook darkens

What a pity the Committee's recommendations and findings come in a time that the U.K. government appears to have decided to phase solar power out of the country's energy mix.

The first will allow rooftop PV to be investable, the second will allow volume, and thus enable PV cost reduction through the supply chain.

At the moment, what we hear from many small to medium installers is that they have been forced to inform their employees that should the new FITs apply in January, they might lose their jobs.

Large-scale PV projects show strong performance in early review

It's not a surprise to anyone who has worked in solar PV for years that the technology is stable and reliable. However, a large utility-scale solar project is a far more complex electrical system than the individual PV modules which it is based on.

And there are still challenges in reassuring the investment community of the reliability of utility-scale solar, given that the technology is relatively knew and that there are few large solar projects that have been around for any significant length of time.

On Tuesday, Fitch Ratings released a report which may help investors come to a more realistic understanding of the risks and reliability profile of solar projects. In this report Fitch assessed the output of five utility-scale solar PV projects and one concentrating solar power (CSP) plant, which were completed between 2011 and the fall of 2014

The report found that these projects produced an average of 9% more electricity than expected, which Fitch credits to factors including better than expected solar irradiance and lower than modeled losses for grid curtailment.

The report also found that the plants tended to have very little downtime, with annual availability factors of 98.5% to 99.5%, and that operating expenses were generally in line with expectations.

“They're off to a good start, particularly compared to wind projects,” notes Fitch Ratings Senior Director Yvette Dennis. However she stresses that these are very short-term results, and that “Long-term performance remains uncertain.”

Mercom Capital CEO Raj Prabhu also says that the report is positive for investment in solar. "This could give some confidence to new investors in funding solar projects and have some positive impacts on interest rates," Prabhu told pv magazine.

"That said, the sample size monitored by Fitch is very small in a specific geographical area, and these findings cannot be generalized to apply to all solar projects."

The projects studied were some of the largest in the world, with three of the PV plants over 500 MW. The report looked at PV plants that were both based on multicrystalline silicon and thin film technologies, as well as a 250 MW CSP project.

Four of the PV projects and the CSP project are located in the United States, and the final PV project was built in Italy.

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