Global
PV module sales to reach
record levels in 2016
Citing stable pricing and increased shipments, IHS said on Monday that global
2016 PV module revenue would
hit $41.9 billion, exceeding the previous record set in 2010 by 4%.
The research firm added that growth would continue into next year, when
module shipments will exceed 2015 shipments by 10%. IHS expects PV module shipments in the
fourth quarter of this year to rise 29% year-over-year, reaching 18.7 GW in the
period.
"Compared to prior years, this period of strong growth in solar installation
demand, coupled with tight supply, will support relatively robust pricing," said
Edurne Zoco, senior principal analyst for IHS Technology. "In fact, average
annual prices are forecast to decline significantly less than in previous
years."
IHS reckons the United States PV market
will see significant decline in 2017, following the reduction of the federal
investment tax credit (ITC). The tax credit reduction will contribute to a fall
in global demand for PV modules, it said,
adding that PV module prices would decline by 9%.
“This year and next year will mark a climax in the recovery of the solar PV sector after a
period of intense price reductions and margin compression, when average gross
margins fell into the mid single digits or lower,” Zoco said. "Even so, the
predicted slowdown in global demand in 2017 -- on the back of a decline in the
United States -- is likely to challenge these suppliers once again, since
manufacturing capacity additions are set to dangerously outpace industry
demand."
Zoco added that competition would intensify, which would lead to accelerating
declines in prices and gross margins for the first time since 2012.
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2015年9月22日星期二
African Renewable Energy Fund raises $200 million
African Renewable Energy Fund raises $200 million
The
African Renewable Energy
Fund (AREF) has raised $200 million of committed capital to support small to
medium scale projects in sub-Saharan Africa.
The
fund aims to invest between $10 million and $30 million in 10 MW to 50 MW power
projects and expects to build a total of 200 MW to 250 MW of capacity in
sub-Saharan Africa (not including South Africa), where two-thirds of the
population remain without access to electricity.
Headquartered
in Nairobi, Kenya, AREF held its first close of $100 million in March 2014 and
since that time has been investing capital in grid-connected development stage
renewable energy
projects, including solar, small hydro, wind, geothermal and biomass.
The
African Development Bank (AfDB), the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the
Global Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fund (GEEREF) are among AREF’s
main investors. As the Fund’s lead sponsor, the AfDB contributed $55 million in
an equity investment package as well as climate finance instruments such as
Sustainable Energy for Africa (SEFA) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF)
to leverage commercial and institutional investment. SEFA has additionally
committed a $10 million Project Support Facility (PSF), which will provide
resources to be deployed at an early stage to structure bankable deals.
“AfDB
is pleased to see that AREF is now fully capitalised to deliver on its
pan-African mandate,” said Alex Rugamba, director of AfDB’s Energy and Climate
Change Department. “We are also equally excited that SEFA and GEF participation
have been catalytic in mobilizing significant amounts of commercial capital into
AREF over a short time-frame; this is key for accelerating deployment of modern,
clean and affordable energy in the continent.”
AREF,
the first dedicated sub-Saharan African renewable energy fund, is managed by
Berkeley Energy, a fund manager focused on developing and investing in renewable
energy projects in emerging markets. Berkeley Energy, which has offices in
London, Singapore, Mauritius, Delhi and Nairobi, also manages dedicated
renewable energy funds in Asia.
Other
investors that have backed AREF include the West African Development Bank
(BOAD), Ecowas Bank for Investment and Development (EBID), FMO, Calvert
Investments, CDC Group, BIO, OeEB - the Development Bank of Austria, Wallace
Global Fund, Sonen Capital, Berkeley Energy and ABREC in addition to a number of
other private investors.
Pim
van Ballekom, European Investment Bank vice president, added that as “one of the
world's largest investors in renewable energy, the European Investment Bank is
committed to ensuring that new projects can be implemented around the world.
This engagement is demonstrated through our support for the Global Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fund, GEEREF. Our combined backing for the
African Renewable Energy Fund will provide both financial support and share
technical experience essential for smaller renewable schemes being implemented
for the first time.”
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Mercom Capital maintains its 2015 global solar forecast of 57.4 GW
Mercom
Capital maintains its 2015 global solar forecast of 57.4 GW
It's been a rough year so far in for China. First came news that the nation was devaluing its currency, followed by a stock market crash. Throughout the first half of the year growth has been slow, even by official figures.
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It's been a rough year so far in for China. First came news that the nation was devaluing its currency, followed by a stock market crash. Throughout the first half of the year growth has been slow, even by official figures.
This
would be a 50% greater volume than any nation has ever installed, and more than
double German installations during their peak. Chinese authorities have reported
that the nation has already installed 7.3 GW in the first half of the year.
Mercom estimates that 2.5-3 GW of these projects were carried over from
2014.
“Demand
in the spot markets is robust and installations of 10 GW during the second half
of the year look achievable,” notes Mercom in its Solar Quarterly Market Update,
released today. The company says that while macro-economic factors have not yet
had an impact on the market, that there are still concerns about curtailment due
to grid congestion in some areas, as well as delayed
payments.
Conditions
are less optimistic in Japan. Mercom expects
flat growth in Japan's market, due to feed-in tariff cuts totaling 16% in 2015.
The company notes that Japanese PV
installations fell 41% sequentially in the most recent quarter, and that the
nation has restarted its first nuclear reactor.
Meanwhile,
the United States continues its path of double-digit growth as developers rush
to get projects online in advance of the drop-down of the federal investment tax
credit at the end of 2016. Mercom estimates that the nation will install 8.5 GW,
which is slightly higher than GTM
Research's latest forecast of 7.7 GW.
These
three markets together are expected to account for 3/5 of the anticipated 2015
global market demand of 57.4 GW, a figure that Mercom has left unchanged since
its last forecast. This is only marginally more than IHS' forecast of 57 GW,
made in March, and will represent a 28% increase over 2014 levels, as the
strongest growth in the last four years.
And
while the position of the top three markets remains unchanged, in 2015 the UK and India will both increase
their positions. Mercom expects the UK solar market to peak
this year at 3 GW, making it the world's fourth-largest market. However, drastic cuts to the nation's feed-in
tariff ensure that growth in the UK
market will end abruptly.
India
is a different story. Mercom predicts that the nation will enter the top five for the first time in
2015, with 2.5 GW installed. India has already installed 1.4 GW in the first
half of the year, and Mercom says that this is only the
beginning.
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Spain: Solar generates 6.8% of summer energy mix, 'sun tax' fears remain
According to the latest statistics published by Spain’s electricity grid
operator, Red Eléctrica de España (REE), solar PV electricity generation in
June, July and August provided 3.87% of the Spanish peninsula's power generation
mix.
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If
you add the 2.9% contributed to the energy mix by the solar thermal
installations, mainland Spain covered 6.77% of its power needs in the summer
from the sun. This is down 1.46% on last year’s summer statistics when the solar
technologies had jointly generated 8.23% of the peninsula’s electrical
energy.
A
bit more positive is the fact that in the first eight months of the year, gross
demand in Spain reached 167,837 GWh, a figure 3.3% higher than in the same
period in 2014. “After having factored in the influence of the seasonal and
working patterns, electrical energy demand was 1.3% higher than that registered
in the same period last year,” REE added.
Excess
capacity together with depressed demand ranks at the top of Spain's energy
sector troubles, including the solar PV sector.
Meanwhile,
Spain's electricity generation from January to August consisted of 21.6% nuclear
power, 19.6% wind power, 19.1% coal, 12.3% hydro, 10.1% co-generation
technologies, 9.7% combined cycle gas, 3.3% solar PV, 2.5% solar thermal and
1.8% other thermal renewable technologies.
The
"sun tax"
The Spanish PV sector's top summer concern, however, remains the proposed "sun tax" relating to the regulation of the self-consumption systems. The government has published a draft self-consumption law according to which solar PV system owners will be taxed for the power they produce, even if it is solely for their own use and not fed into the grid. Spain’s PV sector calls it the "sun tax.”
The Spanish PV sector's top summer concern, however, remains the proposed "sun tax" relating to the regulation of the self-consumption systems. The government has published a draft self-consumption law according to which solar PV system owners will be taxed for the power they produce, even if it is solely for their own use and not fed into the grid. Spain’s PV sector calls it the "sun tax.”
The
Spanish Photovoltaic Union (UNEF) told pv
magazine that the draft
self-consumption law is currently under consideration by the Spanish Council of
State and that Spain’s opposition parties have signed a declaration saying that
if the government publishes the law with the sun tax provision, they will repeal
it if and when it is their turn to govern. All of Spain’s main photovoltaic
associations, trade unions and non-governmental organizations have also signed
this document, said UNEF.
According
to the draft law, UNEF added, some small sized domestic PV projects under 10 kW
for specific areas (e.g. the Balearic Islands) will be exempted but only for a
temporary period.
You
can’t stop the future
“It
is clear the energy policy of the conservative party currently ruling the
country does not want to encourage distributed generation, net metering or
self-consumption schemes," José Donoso, UNEF’s general director, told pv
magazine. "Instead, it clearly supports the energy model of the last
century where few, very powerful utilities dominate the electricity market. The
Spanish government does not want more actors participating in the electricity
market.”
Spain’s domestic PV sector is now waiting for the results of the
general election to be held in December and most vitally for the energy policy
of the new government. Nevertheless, Donoso said, “all efforts to stop the
future will eventually fail.”
Technology
changes rapidly and the change it brings comes from the bottom-up, Donoso added.
What UNEF is worried about is “Spain loosing the opportunity to embrace the
distributed energy revolution we see unfolding in other European countries, and
therefore the domestic PV sector also missing the
opportunity to develop the skills and the know-how to manage the new energy
systems.”
The abolition of Spain’s feed-in tariff
(FIT) scheme in 2013 and a new way to
calculate the income for solar PV projects introduced last year has frozen the
installation activity in Spain and, as a result, the idle Spanish solar PV sector had
invested a lot of hope in the self-consumption regulations.
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Vice President Joe Biden wows crowd at SPI
Vice
President Joe Biden praised the U.S. solar industry in a
powerful speech at last week’s Solar Power International trade show in Anaheim,
California.
Speaking to a crowd of several thousand at the Anaheim Convention Center on Sept. 16, Biden said since he and President Barack Obama took office and put the solar investment tax credit (ITC) in place from 2008 through 2016, solar power had increased 20-fold, grown jobs 86% to 174,000 and expected to reach 210,000 jobs by the end of 2015.
Click to see Vice President's speech at SPI 2015
The vice president also announced a $120 million competitive grant program to further support solar energy development and use.
“Just imagine how much more we can do. How many jobs, imagine how many fewer cases of premature death, heart attack, childhood asthma, imagine the net savings to consumers and taxpayers,” Biden exclaimed. “Folks, because of you, we are on the cusp of something huge here.”
The new grant program is aimed at scaling up clean energy in 24 states across the country, targeting greater access to solar energy in rural and low-income neighborhoods and supporting efforts to reduce solar costs.
The United States solar industry continues to grow dramatically, surpassing 20 GW of total operational solar PV capacity during the second quarter of this year. According to GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) Q2 2015 U.S. Solar Market Insight Report, the U.S. installed 1,393 MW of PV last quarter, signaling both annual and quarterly growth.
Last year, the solar industry added jobs 10 times faster than the rest of the economy and solar represented 40% of all new electric generating capacity brought online in the first half of 2015. Since the beginning of 2010, the average cost of a solar electric system has dropped by 50%, according to the White House.
“It's within reach,” said Biden, adding that the successful growth of solar energy in the U.S. is a tribute to the marketplace. “This isn’t a government mandate. This is the market working.”
The vice president added, “If we stay at it, we can make it faster and more affordable for Americans to choose cleaner and more affordable energy.”
Biden reiterated his support for the ITC extension and argued against the current $5 billion annual tax credit to the oil industry.
“Anybody having a problem getting oil out of the ground today? They don’t need that tax credit.”
Biden pointed out that half the amount of the oil tax credit would cover the solar tax credit extension.
Biden's attendance at SPI marked the the first time a sitting vice president delivered remarks at a solar power conference in North America.
"Vice President Biden addressing Solar Power International shows just how far we've grown as an industry,” said SEIA President and CEO Rhone Resch.
Following his speech at SPI, Biden attended the U.S.-China Climate Leaders Summit in Los Angeles.
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Speaking to a crowd of several thousand at the Anaheim Convention Center on Sept. 16, Biden said since he and President Barack Obama took office and put the solar investment tax credit (ITC) in place from 2008 through 2016, solar power had increased 20-fold, grown jobs 86% to 174,000 and expected to reach 210,000 jobs by the end of 2015.
Click to see Vice President's speech at SPI 2015
The vice president also announced a $120 million competitive grant program to further support solar energy development and use.
“Just imagine how much more we can do. How many jobs, imagine how many fewer cases of premature death, heart attack, childhood asthma, imagine the net savings to consumers and taxpayers,” Biden exclaimed. “Folks, because of you, we are on the cusp of something huge here.”
The new grant program is aimed at scaling up clean energy in 24 states across the country, targeting greater access to solar energy in rural and low-income neighborhoods and supporting efforts to reduce solar costs.
The United States solar industry continues to grow dramatically, surpassing 20 GW of total operational solar PV capacity during the second quarter of this year. According to GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) Q2 2015 U.S. Solar Market Insight Report, the U.S. installed 1,393 MW of PV last quarter, signaling both annual and quarterly growth.
Last year, the solar industry added jobs 10 times faster than the rest of the economy and solar represented 40% of all new electric generating capacity brought online in the first half of 2015. Since the beginning of 2010, the average cost of a solar electric system has dropped by 50%, according to the White House.
“It's within reach,” said Biden, adding that the successful growth of solar energy in the U.S. is a tribute to the marketplace. “This isn’t a government mandate. This is the market working.”
The vice president added, “If we stay at it, we can make it faster and more affordable for Americans to choose cleaner and more affordable energy.”
Biden reiterated his support for the ITC extension and argued against the current $5 billion annual tax credit to the oil industry.
“Anybody having a problem getting oil out of the ground today? They don’t need that tax credit.”
Biden pointed out that half the amount of the oil tax credit would cover the solar tax credit extension.
Biden's attendance at SPI marked the the first time a sitting vice president delivered remarks at a solar power conference in North America.
"Vice President Biden addressing Solar Power International shows just how far we've grown as an industry,” said SEIA President and CEO Rhone Resch.
Following his speech at SPI, Biden attended the U.S.-China Climate Leaders Summit in Los Angeles.
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2015年9月15日星期二
Dubai opens 800 MW PV tender, commissioning set for 2018
Dubai
opens 800 MW PV tender, commissioning
set for 2018
The
Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) has officially opened an 800 MW
solar PV tender. It is the country’s third, and will see 800 MW added to
the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar
Park, of which work on the second
200 MW phase is currently underway.
Bids
for the latest tender will close on September 29. Meanwhile, commissioning of
the 800 MW is set to commence, in phases, in 2018. All generated energy will be
purchased by DEWA under a 25 year PPA.
The
first 13 MW of the solar PV went online in April
2013, and the second phase is expected to be completed in early 2017. First Solar was selected to supply the modules for the first two phases. A consortium, led
by Saudi-based ACWA Power and TSK, a Spanish engineering and construction
company, was also recently taken on to develop, construct, own and operate the
project.
The
second, 200 MW tender set a world record levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)
figure of just 5.8 US cents/kWh. Commenting on the record at the Global Solar
Leaders Summit 2015, running between September 14 and 16 in Dubai HE Saeed
Mohammed Al Tayer, MD & CEO of DEWA, said, "This enabled us to increase the
percentage of renewables in Dubai’s energy mix target from 1% to 7% by 2020 and
from 5% to 15% by 2030, and raise the capacity of phase three of the Solar Park
to 800MW based on the Independent Power Producer model." He added, "This is a
landmark achievement that will put the UAE at the forefront of renewable and
clean energy production in the region."
The
solar park also features
two testing facilities, one for PV and the other for
CPV. "The centre is currently testing around 25 modules of PV panels from global
manufacturers to check different properties and analyse the results to utilise
them in research and development," continued Al Tayer.
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japanIndia: Andhra Pradesh 500 MW PV tender oversubscribed 10-fold
According to Bridge to India, the first NSM bid
under India’s new government has attracted enormous interest with 5.5 GW bid
from 30 developers. Six, including SunEdison and Softbank, bid for the whole 500
MW. Five, meanwhile, have made bids for 200 MW.
The consultancy says 28 bidders
will now move into a second round of, open online, bidding, expected in the next
month. This is the first time open online bidding has been used in India’s solar sector, writes
Bridge to India, which comments, "If similar bids in India for telecom spectrum
and coal mine allocation are any indicator, this mechanism will lead to a
further intensification of competition."
"Aggressive" tariffs of below INR
5/kWh are expected by some, although the consultancy says it remains skeptical
in light of the high solar park infrastructure costs. Saying that, it adds that
the recent tariffs of INR 5.09/kWh –INR
5.98/kWh seen in Punjab were "an eye-opener."
Other solar auctions are also said
to be attracting a lot of attention, with the 420 MW tender in Rajasthan having
reportedly already seen 80 developers expressing interest. The 420 MW is set to
be spread across six 70 MW projects in Bhadla Solar Park Phase II
under the NSM phase II, batch II, tranche I.
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EU PVSEC: Stagnating global PV installations till 2020 or 100 GW cumulative capacity?
The
high number of attendees is in stark contrast to the partly warning, partly
skeptical outlook on the future of the European solar industry,
as communicated by several of the speakers at the opening conference of the 31st
EU PVSEC, held yesterday in Hamburg.
"It
will be difficult for a European industry to be competitive, when there is no
European market," stated Paolo Frankl, head of the renewable energy division at
the International Energy Agency (IEA). He further raised the question of why
decentralized distributed power supply is taking off across the world, and not
in Europe.
Responding
to his own question, Frankl said that in Europe, several factors have come
together: there is less sunshine compared to other parts of the world; energy
demand will not rise; there is supply overcapacity; and problems with network
integration. And it would not exhaust all potential, which lies in
self-consumption. There is a need, he continued, for new business models, like
those in Australia, which is, for
example, more advanced in this sector.
Global
installations
Overall,
the IEA sees a slowing down in the global solar PV market. In two weeks, it
will publish its new report, however a few figures were already available: in
2015, it anticipates that 45 GW of new solar PV installations will be seen.
In
the IEA’s main scenario, it doesn’t see this figure rising, although in its
positive scenario it says 55 GW of new annual installations could be reached.
"I’m not saying that it can’t be more," said Frankl, "but obstacles must be
removed." This is much less than the 57
GW the analysts at IHS expect to see
Eicke
Weber, director at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, went
even further, stating that a cumulative 100 GW capacity is realistic. It is just
a question of how much of a role Europe will play, he said.
Most
important
2,200
participants have already registered at this year’s EU PVSEC, and more are
expected, said the organizers. As such, last year’s figures – where 3,000
participants registered during the week – could be exceeded. The adjacent solar
tradeshow begins today, Tuesday.
In
the words of Stefan Rinck, CEO of Singulus Technologies amd chairman of the
event, the EU PVSEC has established itself as the most important conference
worldwide for PV experts. This also helps to explain why attendee numbers are so
high. Of those pre-registered, 28% came from Germany and 5% from France and the
Netherland, respectively. Of the non-European participants, Japan leads with 7%,
followed by China, the U.S. and Korea, at 4% each.
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German PV equipment manufacturers see orders triple
Despite
a sluggish start to the year, Q2 has seen an uptick in the fortunes of Germany’s
solar PV equipment manufacturers,
with turnovers increasing 52% on Q1. Overall, Germany is said to have cornered
over half the market for equipment in H1 2015.
Compared
to Q2 2014, orders have almost tripled, says VDMA, thus bringing them in line
with those seen in Q2 2011. While no specific figures were provided, VDMA says
Asia accounted for 41% of all new orders, followed by the U.S. with 26%, Europe
with 17% and Germany with 16%.
"The
order situation of the German Photovoltaic machinery industry gives us every
reason to be optimistic. Leading manufacturers invest in technology and
production solutions again. Consequently, we expect a continuation of the
economic recovery over the next few months," commented Florian Wessendorf, MD of
VDMA Photovoltaic Equipment.
Overall,
East Asia is said to represent the most important market for Germany’s equipment
manufacturers, with turnover there totaling 46%. The U.S., meanwhile, accounted
for 31%, and Germany and Europe, 13% and 11%, respectively.
At
60%, solar cell production equipment continued to represent the strongest
segment, followed by equipment for polysilicon and wafer production, at 19%.
Thin film equipment and equipment for crystalline backend module production
accounted for 13% and 8%, respectively.
Although
the U.S. trade tariffs on solar
equipment from China and Taiwan are
continuing to impact can still be felt by Germany’s equipment manufacturers,
Peter Fath, MD of RCT Solutions GmbH and Chairman of VDMA Photovoltaic
Equipment, says, "our customers have accepted the situation," with many having
either relocated or added new production facilities elsewhere.
While
Germany’s equipment manufacturers are enjoying a strong market share, VDMA says
competition is intensifying, particularly among Asian counterparts.
pv
magazine has contacted the VDMA
for more details.
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US: ITC extension will support steady solar growth, finds BNEF, SEIA report
US:
ITC extension will support steady solar growth, finds BNEF, SEIA
report
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Should the U.S. Investment Tax
Credit (ITC) be extended out to 2022 at the current 30% rate it will support the
installation of an additional 22 GW of solar PV capacity, finds
a report published today by Bloomberg New Energy Finance
(BNEF).
The independent analysis was
conducted by BNEF at the behest of the U.S. Solar
Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and posits a future scenario whereby the
ITC runs for a further five years. Under such an extension, solar across the
U.S. would grow by around 69 GW – some 22 GW more than the 47 GW projected
should the current ITC expire, as it is currently poised to do, at the end of
2016.
By January 1, 2017, the ITC will
have dropped from 30% to 10% for commercial-scale systems, and will end
altogether for the residential sector. Should no extension be forthcoming – and
the SEIA and others in the industry are pulling hard for that not to happen –
then industry activity is expected to drop sharply in 2017, but not before a
scrambled rush towards the end of 2016.
According to BNEF’s forecast, 2017
will experience a year-over-year drop in installations of around 8 GW, plumbing
installation depths not seen since 2012 before rising steadily again the
following year.
In contrast, a five-year extension of the ITC – for both commercial and residential and
enacted by mid-2016 so as to avoid an end-of-year rush – would serve to maintain
the current pace of solar growth. The extension
would cut across all segments, says the SEIA, with utility-scale solar growing
by 31 GW between 2016-2022, sun 10 GW more than the no-ITC scenario. For
commercial, growth would be 5 GW greater, and residential would benefit by a
further 7 GW.
Cumulatively, a 30% ITC out to
2022 would see the U.S. hit 95 GW of installed solar PV capacity, generating
some 144,000 TWh of electricity – enough to power 19 million homes and account
for 3.5% of the country’s energy mix.
The dreaded ITC "cliff", currently
unavoidable in 2017, would also be less steep after 2022, says the BNEF report,
with deployment only set to fall by 10% as opposed to a projected 71% in
2017.
From an employment and economic
perspective, the SEIA suggests that 80,000 solar jobs could be lost by 2017 if the ITC is not extended, and 100,000
overall, whereas an extension would not only protect those jobs but also add
61,000 roles in the industry, delivering 32% greater employment over that
five-year period, which would help yield up to $124 billion in total investment
as opposed to just $39 billion if the ITC expires.
"The good-paying jobs of more than
100,000 Americans and thousands of U.S. companies – many of them small
businesses – are at risk if the ITC is not extended," said SEIA President and
CEO Rhone Resch. "As the voice of the solar industry, SEIA will not rest until
Congress fully understands the importance of this critical policy. The time to
act is now."
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UK solar cuts will cost country in the long run, says REA
The Renewable Energy Association
(REA) of the U.K. has studied the potential impact of the government’s proposals
to cut the feed-in tariff (FIT) by as
much as 87% by January 1, 2016, and found that the move could result in a net
loss for the country’s coffers.
In estimating how much money will
be lost in terms of tax, national insurance revenue and welfare payments from
the 15,000 jobs that are predicted to go if the government’s cuts are enacted,
the REA has found that the HM Treasury will miss out on £94 million ($145
million).
When set against the proposed
savings to the Department of Energy and Climate Change’s (DECC) proposed budget
cat until the end of the incentive, this works out as a net loss for the
government – and is further evidence of a confused, short-sighted and ideologically
driven assault by the Conservatives on
the U.K.’s solar
industry.
The 15,000 job losses is a
conservative estimate, with some projections suggesting that as many as 25,000
jobs could go following the latest changes to the solar support scheme. The
estimates from the REA do not include the loss of business rates for local
councils, nor VAT and corporation tax paid by solar companies that may have to
downsize or struggle to survive.
The REA said it was "disappointed"
that after a decade of government support for the expansion of solar power, the
industry is in danger of "being tripped at the final hurdle" before it can reach
grid parity, which is expected in 2020 according to a REA/KPMG
report.
"The government’s sudden reversal
of support for solar
and other emerging renewables technologies ignores the substantial benefits that
a healthy renewables industry provide to U.K. employment and the public purse,"
said REA head of policy and external affairs, James Court. "Our recent solar
report shows how the technology can reach grid parity, but this relies on
continued government support."
Another strand of the REA’s attack
on the government’s decision is the negative impact it will have on further U.K.
innovation – a secondary benefit of a thriving solar industry. With solar
suppressed, recent strides in the U.K.’s storage sector will suffer, slowing
further development in innovation and cost reduction, warns REA’s senior policy
analyst Frank Gordon.
"Not only do the government
proposals risk a damaging boom-and-bust scenario that might see the [FIT] scheme
shut early, but they also damage the prospects for energy storage, which
ministers have said they support," said Gordon. "Storage and renewables together
will aid local communities to make independent decisions around their energy
supplies and save money. Cutting government support now jeopardises this
innovative future."
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Clouds on the horizon as Solar Power International opens in Southern California
This
year's Solar Power
International trade show got off to a
strong start. Based on registration numbers, organizers are expecting 15,000
visitors, a 25% increase over the 12,000 who attended the previous
year.
The
mood at the opening day of the show was doubtless influenced by developments in
the prior week. First, U.S. Vice
President Joseph Biden confirmed that he will speak at the conference. Second,
on the last day of the session, California's legislature passed a bill to
require that the state's utilities procure 50% of their electricity from
renewable energy sources by 2030 – the
second-strongest mandate in the nation.
The
show also comes during a boom time for U.S. solar, particularly in the
utility-scale segment. In its latest quarterly report, GTM Research estimates
that over 5 GW of solar is currently under construction in the United States,
driven by a rush to complete projects before the drop-down of the investment tax
credit (ITC).
However,
this boom is inseparable from a pending collapse in the market come 2017 if the
ITC is not extended. In the conference's opening session, Solar Energy
Industries Association (SEIA) spoke in no uncertain terms about the danger that
the industry was facing, calling ITC extension the industry's “biggest policy
challenge yet.”
“I
think you need to look at the wind industry to know what a dramatic impact this
can have,” warned SEIA CEO Rhone Resch, referring to the multiple times that the
Production Tax Credit has expired.
Resch
cited numbers from a new report by
Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which predicts that U.S. installed solar
capacity will fall from over 11 GW in 2016 to 3.4 GW in 2017 if the ITC is not
extended. With a five year extension, the report finds a much less severe impact
from a similar drop-down of tax credit levels in 2022.
The
report also finds that the pending decline in the ITC in 2017 will be
accompanied by the loss of 80,000 jobs, or more than half the current total.
With fallout from related industries, this number would be more than 100,000
jobs.
During
the conference's opening session, SEIA officials called on those in the audience
to get active in the campaign for ITC extension, including by joining the
organization. Resch also revealed that there is currently a bill in the U.S.
House to extend the ITC for five years and allow projects under construction by
the end of the term to access the credit, with 40 co-signers.
However,
he notes that this legislation is unlikely to pass on its own, and will probably
be incorporated into either an extenders package or an omnibus bill, subject to
the political uncertainties of congressional horse-trading.
In
the opening session SEIA also spoke to the Obama Administration's Clean Power Plan. The
organization notes that while the plan is a very positive step for solar, that
the real test will be implementation at the state level.
“There's
50 states worth of work to make that a reality,” noted SEIA Board Chair Nat
Kreamer, who also serves as CEO of Clean Power Finance.
Furthermore,
the effects of the Clean Power Plan will not be immediate. “You're really not
looking at anything until 2020, 2022 or beyond,” explained Kreamer.
These
warnings did little to dampen the crowd's enthusiasm. It is still boom time in
the U.S. solar industry, even if clock is ticking. Resch also notes that the ITC
extension is already starting to affect the industry, as no one is planning
larger solar projects that cannot be completed in sixteen months'
time.
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