2014年8月30日星期六

Australia: Solar costs could rise 50% if RET cut

 Following yesterday's news that the Warburton Panel – handpicked by Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott – has advised Australia's government to strip back its Renewable Energy Target (RET), solar experts have said that any cut to the RET is likely to increase the cost of solar systems by as much as half.
In reviewing the RET, the panel has suggested that there is a "strong case for winding back the small-scale renewable energy scheme" after it found that Australia's booming rooftop solar sector generated 6,400 GW hours of electricity last year – well above the RET’s original target of 4,000 GW hours by 2020.
Although the final green light is not expected for a few weeks, renewable energy supporters in Australia have urged would-be solar customers to "put their orders in now", warning of a potential 50% price hike should the RET – as widely expected – be cut.
The Clean Energy Council's policy manager, Darren Gladman, told the Sydney Morning Herald that potential solar customers should not delay, adding that the window to apply for current rates is likely to be "very narrow if previous policy changes are any guide".
Solar retailer Sungevity calculate that the cost of a typical 2 kW PV system will rise from AUS$5,000 to AUS$7,500 if the small-scale renewable energy scheme is scrapped, extending the payback period from five to eight years.
Having been split in 2011 between a large-scale component and an open-ended program for households and small businesses, the RET has been instrumental in bolstering Australia's small-scale solar sector.
Currently, there are 1.3 million Australian households with a solar system fitted, aiding the country's overall installed capacity of 3 GW. In 2013, 800 MW of rooftop PV was added, and that figure could reach 750 MW this year, even amid the uncertainty cause by PM Abbott's apparent eagerness to strip back the RET.
Uncertainty causing instability
The Warburton Panel is largely expected to push for the RET to be cut. Its chief panelist is renowned climate skeptic Dick Warburton, former chairman of petroleum company Caltex. The panel admits that any withdrawal of support is likely to damage the industry, pouring a dose of dampening uncertainty over a sector that has enjoyed unprecedented growth.
"Modeling indicates that repeal of the RET scheme would have an immediate effect of reducing the install rates of rooftop PV by at least 30%, and the number of solar water heaters by around 16%,” said the panel report.
"However, by the early 2020s, the rate of small-scale solar PV systems installed each year would recover at a rate similar to that if the scheme was left in place."
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) at least agree that the longer-term recovery is likely, but base their findings on the not-unreasonable expectation that solar panel prices will continue to tumble while electricity prices continue to rise. "The end of support will almost certainly create a boom then a bust," said BNEF lead analyst Kobad Bhavnagri. "Every policy change does."
Bhavnagri has questioned the panel's recommendations of allowing large-scale renewable energy plants to set one-year targets, allowing firms to bid for 50% of any growth in capacity.
"It is very hard to see how one-year extensions would give you any certainty. It is totally unworkable," he said.
Article From PV Magazine

A complex market: An interview with Dr. Rodrigo Sauaia of ABSolar on Brazil's PV market

PV Magazine: The Brazilian solar market is complex, and it seems that it is a very different market at different scales. We have the utility-scale sector, and we have the distributed sector. Can you talk about how the Brazilian market looks at these two different scales?

Dr. Sauaia: Yes, definitely. Well, in regards to the distributed market, what is driving the market is regulation 482-2012, that was devised by ANEEL, which is the electricity regulation agency of the country, in 2012, as I mentioned. This is basically a system similar to net metering.

Unfortunately, we are still facing a few obstacles for the long-term development of this policy in the country. The two most important of these obstacles are financing and taxation. We will talk about this later on. 

In regards to the centralized market or utility-scale projects, we have the central government now driving this market through a specific auction, which is the first of its kind for the country, it happening on the 31st of October 2014, and for this auction we already have around 10.8 GW of projects which have presented their interest to participate. 


PV Magazine: Yes, this auction is very exciting. This is the reserve auction in late October. And there was a previous solar-only auction in the state of Pernambuco. And yet there are still barriers. When I speak with market analysts, they speak about financing being a key barrier in the utility-scale segment.

Now BNDES has recently announced that it will provide financing for solar projects which use domestic content. Can you speak a little about your view on this move by BNDES and a little bit about the broader landscape for financing solar projects in Brazil?


Dr. Sauaia: Sure. ABSolar, on behalf of the companies which are its associated members, has been discussing this subject of financing with the government for quite a while now. We also had the opportunity to discuss this directly with BNDES through meetings with several of its employees and especially with its president as well in Rio di Janeiro.

The funding options which are available for this coming auction are based on two programs, which are Fundo Clima, with very attractive interest rate, and also conditions for lets say the timeframe for you obtain this financing, and the other one is FINEM, BNDES-FINEM. Basically through BNDES you can get up to 80% of your financing for the project, provided that you have some local content on it.

The local content is phased in three steps, up to 2017, from 2018 to 2019, and up from 2020 onwards. It is three different phases. And the amount of local content that you need on your project increases from one phase to the other. 

Normally to get access to the funding what you need is for your equipment to be part of a list of funded goods from the bank. And for that to happen, you need to comply with some of these local conditions. For the beginning, for these first projects, the conditions include mounting the module in the country, and having the frame of the module, the aluminum frame, produced in Brazil. And those are the module requirements.

In terms of PV system requirements, also the mounting structures, the racking needs to be with Brazilian local content, and cabling and connectors. These are the conditions for the moment.


PV-Magazine: To talk a little bit about the distributed generation sector, I understand that Brazil has passed a policy which is net metering, but that there are still difficulties because the output of the PV plants is taxed. Unlike other nations where the output is not taxed and is essentially a trade of electricity. Can you talk a little bit about the economics of the distributed generation sector, and what can be done to move this sector forward?

Dr. Sauaia: 
Well, first of all I have to say that in the Brazil at the moment we don't have a real net metering. Although the idea of the regulation 482-2012 was exactly to promote net metering, the problem is that taxation is being applied to the electricity that is compensated.

So what do I mean by that? If you have for example a client that is producing 500 kWh of electricity and is consuming from the distribution grid 1,000 kWh of electricity, you normally would expect that he would pay only for the difference between the two – the difference between what he consumes and what he generates. In this case, 500 kWh.

But unfortunately, what is happening is he pays for the generation part of the tariff, 500 kWh, but for the taxes part of the tariff he pays over the 1,000 kWh he is producing – everything. In spite of the fact that this client had compensated some of this electricity.

So it is not a real net metering at the moment. As a result, about 33% of the value of the electricity which is injected into the electricity grid is lost.

So this is something that right now we are discussing with the states, it is the states which decide this taxation system, so it is more complicated than simply talking to the governments, we have to talk to the 26 states plus the federal districts. It is rather a battle, but we are facing this battle and we are sure of the victory.


PV-Magazine: When I look at the Brazilian market I see a market which is not very large at present, but where there is so much interest – the drivers are so strong. How would you characterize what you expect in the next two or three years in Brazil?

Dr. Sauaia:
 Putting it in perspective, what Brazil has at the moment around 42 MW of installed capacity. This is about 12 MW connected to the grid, plus 30 MW of off-grid systems. If we think that last year we had the first auction, with around 120 MW of installed capacity to be built up until to 2017. And this year we have an expectation of between 500 MW and 1 GW to be contracted in this single auction happening in October, well it is basically a game changer.

So this market will grow significantly, and therefore we expect a lot of interest from international players into the Brazilian market.


PV- Magazine: Is there anything that we haven't touched on that is important for our readers to know about the Brazilian solar market and about ABSolar's role in it?

Dr. Sauaia: Well, I can mention a few points that could be relevant. First of all, we talked about some of the current barriers, I think both for distributed generation, and for large-scale projects financing has been a barrier. We now have a little more certainty with BNDES funding that there are conditions available for funding of the projects. There is still a little uncertainty about local content, if companies will be able to build factories and really deliver on this local content, this is something for the near future. 

On the other hand, we also have issues with taxation. Not only the taxation of electricity which we discussed here, but also taxation of materials, components, goods throughout the whole value chain. This is something that ABSolar is working on directly with the government, with the ministries. The other thing is that we are working with some local and regional governments to try to create subsidies or support schemes for photovoltaic to grow locally and regionally. 

For example, we are evaluating a system similar to the American ITC, which has good success, and could be a driver. This is a bit difficult because it requires law, regulations, specific laws, and this takes a while in Brazil. Our legislative system it is rather difficult. But, it is a possibility.

A complex market: An interview with Dr. Rodrigo Sauaia of ABSolar on Brazil's PV market

PV Magazine: The Brazilian solar market is complex, and it seems that it is a very different market at different scales. We have the utility-scale sector, and we have the distributed sector. Can you talk about how the Brazilian market looks at these two different scales?

Dr. Sauaia: Yes, definitely. Well, in regards to the distributed market, what is driving the market is regulation 482-2012, that was devised by ANEEL, which is the electricity regulation agency of the country, in 2012, as I mentioned. This is basically a system similar to net metering.

Unfortunately, we are still facing a few obstacles for the long-term development of this policy in the country. The two most important of these obstacles are financing and taxation. We will talk about this later on. 

In regards to the centralized market or utility-scale projects, we have the central government now driving this market through a specific auction, which is the first of its kind for the country, it happening on the 31st of October 2014, and for this auction we already have around 10.8 GW of projects which have presented their interest to participate. 


PV Magazine: Yes, this auction is very exciting. This is the reserve auction in late October. And there was a previous solar-only auction in the state of Pernambuco. And yet there are still barriers. When I speak with market analysts, they speak about financing being a key barrier in the utility-scale segment.

Now BNDES has recently announced that it will provide financing for solar projects which use domestic content. Can you speak a little about your view on this move by BNDES and a little bit about the broader landscape for financing solar projects in Brazil?


Dr. Sauaia: Sure. ABSolar, on behalf of the companies which are its associated members, has been discussing this subject of financing with the government for quite a while now. We also had the opportunity to discuss this directly with BNDES through meetings with several of its employees and especially with its president as well in Rio di Janeiro.

The funding options which are available for this coming auction are based on two programs, which are Fundo Clima, with very attractive interest rate, and also conditions for lets say the timeframe for you obtain this financing, and the other one is FINEM, BNDES-FINEM. Basically through BNDES you can get up to 80% of your financing for the project, provided that you have some local content on it.

The local content is phased in three steps, up to 2017, from 2018 to 2019, and up from 2020 onwards. It is three different phases. And the amount of local content that you need on your project increases from one phase to the other. 

Normally to get access to the funding what you need is for your equipment to be part of a list of funded goods from the bank. And for that to happen, you need to comply with some of these local conditions. For the beginning, for these first projects, the conditions include mounting the module in the country, and having the frame of the module, the aluminum frame, produced in Brazil. And those are the module requirements.

In terms of PV system requirements, also the mounting structures, the racking needs to be with Brazilian local content, and cabling and connectors. These are the conditions for the moment.


PV-Magazine: To talk a little bit about the distributed generation sector, I understand that Brazil has passed a policy which is net metering, but that there are still difficulties because the output of the PV plants is taxed. Unlike other nations where the output is not taxed and is essentially a trade of electricity. Can you talk a little bit about the economics of the distributed generation sector, and what can be done to move this sector forward?

Dr. Sauaia: 
Well, first of all I have to say that in the Brazil at the moment we don't have a real net metering. Although the idea of the regulation 482-2012 was exactly to promote net metering, the problem is that taxation is being applied to the electricity that is compensated.

So what do I mean by that? If you have for example a client that is producing 500 kWh of electricity and is consuming from the distribution grid 1,000 kWh of electricity, you normally would expect that he would pay only for the difference between the two – the difference between what he consumes and what he generates. In this case, 500 kWh.

But unfortunately, what is happening is he pays for the generation part of the tariff, 500 kWh, but for the taxes part of the tariff he pays over the 1,000 kWh he is producing – everything. In spite of the fact that this client had compensated some of this electricity.

So it is not a real net metering at the moment. As a result, about 33% of the value of the electricity which is injected into the electricity grid is lost.

So this is something that right now we are discussing with the states, it is the states which decide this taxation system, so it is more complicated than simply talking to the governments, we have to talk to the 26 states plus the federal districts. It is rather a battle, but we are facing this battle and we are sure of the victory.


PV-Magazine: When I look at the Brazilian market I see a market which is not very large at present, but where there is so much interest – the drivers are so strong. How would you characterize what you expect in the next two or three years in Brazil?

Dr. Sauaia:
 Putting it in perspective, what Brazil has at the moment around 42 MW of installed capacity. This is about 12 MW connected to the grid, plus 30 MW of off-grid systems. If we think that last year we had the first auction, with around 120 MW of installed capacity to be built up until to 2017. And this year we have an expectation of between 500 MW and 1 GW to be contracted in this single auction happening in October, well it is basically a game changer.

So this market will grow significantly, and therefore we expect a lot of interest from international players into the Brazilian market.


PV- Magazine: Is there anything that we haven't touched on that is important for our readers to know about the Brazilian solar market and about ABSolar's role in it?

Dr. Sauaia: Well, I can mention a few points that could be relevant. First of all, we talked about some of the current barriers, I think both for distributed generation, and for large-scale projects financing has been a barrier. We now have a little more certainty with BNDES funding that there are conditions available for funding of the projects. There is still a little uncertainty about local content, if companies will be able to build factories and really deliver on this local content, this is something for the near future. 

On the other hand, we also have issues with taxation. Not only the taxation of electricity which we discussed here, but also taxation of materials, components, goods throughout the whole value chain. This is something that ABSolar is working on directly with the government, with the ministries. The other thing is that we are working with some local and regional governments to try to create subsidies or support schemes for photovoltaic to grow locally and regionally. 

For example, we are evaluating a system similar to the American ITC, which has good success, and could be a driver. This is a bit difficult because it requires law, regulations, specific laws, and this takes a while in Brazil. Our legislative system it is rather difficult. But, it is a possibility.

pv magazine weekly news round-up: Aug 22-29

pv magazine weekly news round-up: Aug 22-29

Every Friday, pv magazine will round up the biggest and best stories from the past week and package them here in one easily digestible news nugget. So kick back, fire up the coffee machine and get up to speed with the latest comings and goings in the global PV industry.
What we learned this week
This time last week we had no idea that the world may fall tantalizingly short of its climate change objectives – all becauserenewable energy deployment will begin to slow noticeably after 2014.
Wait. That cannot be right, can it? Because we also learned this week that solar power is set to become energy's top dog by 2025, kicking big coal-fired power plants to the kerb in the process.
These two, mildly conflicting reports from the International Energy Agency and UBS Bank respectively served to shine a light on just how difficult it is to make predictions and projections when it comes to solar's future.
The IEA Report, presented in Paris on August 28, suggests that the expansion of renewable energy – so impressive in 2013 and enjoying good growth this year – is likely to slow over the next five years. The caveat – and it is a big one – is that the eradication of policy uncertainty will reverse this trend.
Renewable energy will not reach its climate change targets unless governments the world over can agree on smooth support policies that do not spook investors. "Just as renewables are becoming a cost-competitive option in an increasing number of cases, policy and regulatory uncertainty is rising in some key market," said IEA executive director, Maria van der Hoeven. "This stems from concerns about the costs of deploying renewables."
To arrest this inevitable decline, the report notes, governments must "distinguish more clearly between the past, present and future, as costs are falling over time, and many renewables no longer need incentive levels".
That, in a nutshell, is what the world's largest private bank – UBS – told its clients this week. In a surprisingly pro-solar report, the bank argued the case for solar, forecasting a tipping point “by 2025” whereby a perfect solar storm will gather speed, gusting away coal-fired power plants in the process, and setting in motion an unstoppable race to democratize energy… in Europe at least.
"By 2025, everybody will be able to produce and store power," read the report. "And it will be green and cost-competitive, ie, not more expensive or even cheaper than buying power from utilities." The report even went so far as to urge its wealthy client base to "join the revolution", stopping tantalizingly short of calling it a "solar revolution". Either way, the writing appears to be on the wall.
For something a little more off-the-wall, we turn our attention to Scotland. During the Edinburgh International Book Festival, a lively debate between the merits of solar Vs fracking sparked up and – would ye believe it – solar won the day. In Scotland. Rainy, cloudy Scotland.
"Due to Scottish weather, solar energy is something Scottish policy makers didn’t pay adequate attention to in the past, and that is changing now," Richard Dixon, director of Friends of the Earth Scotland, told pv magazine.
"Because solar is doing so well in England and Germany, and the price of solar modules has been reduced significantly, policy makers and the public in Scotland have started to realize the great potential of this technology."
Encouraging words that may prove doubly prescient if Scotland decides to go it alone and vote to break away from the U.K. next month. The Scots go to the polls on September 18 and, as we have seen with solar energy, predicting what the future might hold is a rather onerous task.
Nothing to stop solar's growth… or is there?
Lux Research were bold enough this week to predict that the global solar PV market will reach 65 GW annual installions by 2019, according to the analysts' latest report. Such growth would represent a 75% market increase on today’s figures, with China leading the way each year but rapid growth on the cards for the Americas, which could be on course for an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.3%
Also this week pv magazine reported that there is no global solar panel shortage on the horizon, despite what other media outlets reported earlier in the week.
Stefan de Haan of IHS told us that while the cell and solar module glut had certainly dried up, current capacity is still sufficient to serve a market of 45.5 GW. "In 2014, the market is pretty balanced," de Haan said. "As installation markets are continuing to grow, and there have been no major capacity expansions last year, which helped the supply demand gap to close."
With utilization rates rising, capital expenditure increasing and demand for solar spreading to all four corners of the world, the market appears to be in pretty good shape as the second half of the year kicks into gear. John Perlin, author of Let it Shine: The 6,000-Year Story of Solar Energy, will be unsurprised by these developments. In an interview with pv magazine, he called solar energy "unstoppable" – and he should know: Perlin has been writing about solar's potential for more than 30 years. If you’ve not yet checked out his fascinating interview, it is well worth a read.
India and Latin America show their solar hand
Two of the world’s most promising emerging markets for solar – India and Latin America – both showed their hand this week, each revealing a definite thumbs-up for solar.
In India, the government rejected anti-dumping duties, much to the relief of the industry's gathering gaggle of project developers and investors. India's solar potential is vast and unrealized, having stumbled over the past 12 months due to political uncertainty. But pro-solar PM Narendra Modi has cleverly navigated the solar minefield, and the National Solar Mission can hopefully now get back on track – a track that could lead to the installation of 17 GW of solar PV capacity by 2022.
In Latin America, this week's Intersolar South America exhibition served to remind the world of the thirst for solar energy that exists in this region. The overall mood is one of acceptance of solar power, and a desire to get involved at a grass roots level – which means more solar manufacturing, more local expertise, more installed capacity, and more off-grid installations.
pv magazine has a full and frank Latin America report coming up in next month’s September issue, so be sure not to miss it.
And finally…
It was backslaps all round for Japan's Kyocera this week after it was revealed that the company was the only solar manufacturer to receive top marks in all six categories of GTM Research's July 2014 PV Module Reliability Scorecard.
Solar power in New York received an overhaul this week following the news that the city’s solar programs are to be bundled together under one initiative – the NY-Sun Incentive Program. “This approach will help the industry plan for the future, spur new development and aid in New York’s transition to a cleaner, cheaper and more efficient energy grid,” said New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.
And in a bad week for renewable energy in Australia, a government-appointed review panel advised that the Renewable Energy Target (RET) be scaled back in a move that solar supporters say will cause solar system price hikes of around 50%.
August 22-29: That was the week that was. Be sure to follow @pv-magazine on Twitter for continued updates and breaking news, and check back next Friday for the next pv magazine weekly news roundup.

2014年8月28日星期四

UK distributed power generation market could decline by 2019

The U.K. government's controversial decision to scale-back its Renewable Obligation Certificate (ROC) scheme in favor of the Contracts for Difference (CfD) program will trigger a significant decline in investment in the country's distributed power generation market, says research firm GlobalData.
Investment in the distributed generation (DG) sector – comprising solar PV, wind and combined heat and power (CHP) – will experience a sharp decline, from close to $2.5 billion last year to under $1 billion by 2019, say GlobalData analysts.
In its latest report, Policy Amendments Leave the U.K. Distributed Power Generation Market in Disarray, GlobalData argues that investment in DG will fluctuate over the remainder of the year and into 2015, but will begin falling from early 2016.
The report suggests that the expiration of the ROC scheme in March 2017 (although solar PV will no longer benefit from the policy after March next year) and the introduction next April of the CfD program will limit the amount of government funding available for each DG power sector. Clean energy schemes will become less attractive to investors, leading to a noticeable decline in funding.
"We expect these excessive and overlapping policies to create chaos in the U.K.’s solar PV DG market in particular," warned GlobalData project manager for alternative energy, Ankit Mathur. "As part of its solar PV strategy, the U.K. government aims to boost the small and medium-sized commercial solar PV DG sector by encouraging rooftop installations on government properties, with a target of installing 1 GW of capacity by 2020.
"However, only 75% of this target is likely to be achieved."
Despite this ostensibly gloomy outlook for the U.K.’s solar sector, GlobalData belives that cumulate installed PV capacity will enjoy moderate growth beyond 2017, reaching approximately 7 GW capacity by 2019.

Article From PV Magazine

Intersolar South America examines challenges, promise of Brazil's solar market

In an immense conference hall in a northern suburb of São Paulo the 2014 Intersolar South America trade show began on August 26th. Within this cavernous building, the relatively small trade show shared floor space with at least two other industry events, and it was hard to see the line where Intersolar ended and an electrical equipment trade show began.

Despite its name, Intersolar South America 2014 was very much focused on the nation in which it is hosted. Brazil took center stage, with less attention on Chile and only tangential mentions of Uruguay or other markets. And the Brazilian market has had plenty of good news recently, including the announcement of a solar-only auction as part of the nation's reserve auction in October and the publication of rules under which national development bank BNDES will provide loans to PV projects.

However, even with these significant developments, the circumstances of the show spoke to the position that solar occupies in Brazil. Solar and other renewable energy development is competing for space with other national priorities, including the ever-present drive for economic development. 

Jürgen Beigel of the German Federal Enterprise for International Cooperation (GIZ) estimates that the nation needs to add 60 GW of new electricity capacity by 2020, due to Brazil's growing population and economy. 

Another consideration is water. Brazil is highly dependent upon cheap hydroelectricity, and two years of drought have reduced generation from this sector, causing greater reliance on expensive fossil fuels. Wind and solar can help address this problem as well, however renewable energy is still treated as a means to an end rather than an end in itself.

Conference sessions were cautious, and addressed very real market barriers. Chiefly, the nation's distributed generation sector is hamstrung by taxes on the output of net metered systems, which have caused this market segment to be stillborn. For utility-scale systems, an extremely difficult financing environment and high taxes on imported PV products coupled with a lack of domestic manufacturing present major challenges.

Despite this, there is reason to be excited. Last week S4 Solar do Brasil announced plans to build a PV module assembly facility in the state of Goiás with an annual production capacity of 100 MW, which will triple the nation's entire module production capacity. This can be seen as a direct result of BNDES rules, which stipulate that solar projects which it funds through 2016 feature locally-assembled PV modules.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance Latin America Research Analyst Lilian Alves says that access to such financing will be a make-or-break issue for solar projects. When asked by PV Magazine if large utility-scale solar projects can be built under the October auction without BNDES funding, Alves replied: “I think it would be very hard. The math doesn't add up.”

Perhaps this combination of promise and real challenges was best summed up by Jürgen Beigel of GIZ. "Whoever wants to do business here in Brazil, it might be better to prepare for a marathon rather than a short sprint.”

 
Article From PV Magazine

US electrical generation from renewables hits 14.3%

US electrical generation from renewables hits 14.3%


Renewable energy sources accounted for 14.3% of net U.S. electrical generation in the first half of the year, according to a new report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Data from the EIA’s latest Electric Power Monthly report indicates non-hydro renewables, including solar, wind, geothermal and biomass, made up a 7.3% share of electrical generation, while conventional hydropower accounted for 7%.
Overall, electrical generation from non-hydro renewable energy sources expanded by 10.4% compared to the first half of 2013.
Solar-generated electricity more than doubled, growing by 115.7%, while wind power increased by 9% compared to last year, accounting for 5% of the nation's electrical generation during the first six months of the year. Biomass also grew by 4%. Geothermal power, however, dipped by 1.5% and conventional hydropower declined by 4.2%.
Even with the lower output from hydropower and geothermal, net U.S. electrical generation from all renewable sources combined grew by 2.73%. By comparison, net electrical generation from all energy sources --  renewables, fossil fuels and nuclear power -- grew by 2.59%.
"Not long ago, EIA was forecasting that renewables would not reach 14% of U.S. electrical generation until the year 2040," noted Ken Bossong, executive director of the Sun Day Campaign. "And even the current 14.3% figure undoubtedly understates the real contribution from renewables inasmuch as EIA's data does not fully reflect distributed and off-grid generation."
Article From PV Magazine

2014年8月27日星期三

Global solar market to surpass 65 GW by 2019

Global solar market to surpass 65 GW by 2019
China is set to lead global solar market growth in the next five years, which is set to increase by 75% to 65.6 GW in 2019, according to Lux Research.
The market research firm says the market will grow at an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% despite challenges such as trade disputes with China and changes in global policy, which it adds will nevertheless cast a shadow over short-term prospects.
According to the report, Solar Market Size Update 2014: Reform for the Long Haul, China became the biggest solar market in the world with 11.8 GWp installations in 2013. It points out that the country has been key to faster-than-expected global recovery. Since the competitive bankruptcy-ridden cost environment of 2012, module supplier margins have increased, with most tier-1 suppliers topping 10% toward the end of 2013 and 15% in the first quarter of 2014, it adds.

"With solar now fairly common in most parts of the world, it reaps the rewards of direct incentives but also faces uncertainty due to pressure on trade activity with China," said Matthew Feinstein, Lux Research senior analyst and the report's lead author. "Furthermore, as an increasingly commonplace electricity source, most major markets are dealing with some combination of these dynamics, complicating the status of policy globally," he added.
Lux Research analysts evaluated the growth trajectory of the solar industry and examined policies and other challenges. Among their findings:
  • Growth is fastest in the Americas. At a CAGR of 16.3%, the Americas will be the fastest-growing region in the world as its new installations market nearly triples from 5.3 GWp in 2013 to 15.4 GWp in 2019. The U.S. will pace the rest of the Americas, growing from 4.7 GWp to 11.7 GWp but South America will grow 10-fold to 2.5 GWp in 2019. The Asia-Pacific region will grow at a lower 8.2% CAGR but will account for over 50% of global demand, led by China, Japan and other emerging markets.
  • Cost cuts will be sustained. With cost cuts critical to the sustained growth of the industry, incremental increases in efficiency are on course from technologies such as passivated emitter rear contact (PERC), heterojunction with intrinsic layer (HIT) and selective emitter (SE).  System costs will drop by between $0.36/Wp for utility-scale and $0.60/Wp for residential by 2019. This will translate to a 20% cut in total system costs.
  • X-Si remains technology of choice. Crystalline silicon (x-Si) will dominate the solar market through 2019 even though other module technologies such as copper iridium gallium diselenide (CIGS), copper zinc tinc sulfide (CZTS), cadmium telluride (CdTe) and thin, flexible, epitaxial silicon (epi-Si) have the potential to become major threats in the future. X-Si, with an 84.6% market share, will grow from 31.6 GWp in 2013 to 55.7 GWp in 2019, growing at a CAGR of 8.45%. CdTe and CIGS will be a distant second – growing to 4.8 GWp and 4.2 GWp, respectively, in 2019.


Article From PV Magazine


India rejects anti-dumping duties

India rejects anti-dumping duties

Indian solar project developers heaved a collective sigh of relief as the anti-dumping duty deadline passed without any official announcement from the Indian government, which means there will be no anti-dumping duties in the country on solar cells and modules imported from China, Malaysia, Taiwan and the United States.
The Indian Finance Ministry, which was to decide on the levying of anti-dumping duties by August 22, did not announce any measures as the date passed. Two key officials at the Indian Finance Ministry declined to comment on the issue when contacted by pv magazine.
Solar cell and module producers and solar project developers, the two groups with opposing interests on the matter, were waiting with bated breath for the announcement from the Ministry of Finance. Earlier, the Directorate General of Anti-Dumping & Allied Duties, a government unit under the Ministry of Commerce, had recommended in its final finding on May 22 to levy anti-dumping duties in the range of $0.11-$0.81 per watt on solar cell imports from the China, Malaysia, Taiwan and the United States. In a departure from classification by U.S. and European Union authorities on the two leading technologies (PV and thin film), Indian authorities recommended imposition of anti-dumping duties on both solar cells and thin film. The Commerce Ministry sent its recommendation to the Finance Ministry, whose assent to the recommendation would have had to have come within the following three months.
In early August, replying to a query from the Indian Parliament’s upper house, Commerce & Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the government had received a number of representations arguing both for and against imposition of anti-dumping duties and added that both the Commerce Ministry’s recommendations as well as the opinions received were being considered by the Ministry of Finance.
However, other than the country’s Commerce Ministry, some key ministers in the newly formed cabinet of Prime Minister Narendra Modi were against levying of anti-dumping duties. On the final day of the three-month period, Indian Power Minister Piyush Goyal, who also heads the Renewable Energy Ministry, declined to comment on the issue when queried by press. "The subject of anti-dumping relates to another ministry, which will take an appropriate call as and when it is required," Goyal reportedly told the waiting press after meeting a delegation of solar power equipment producers who have been demanding imposition of anti-dumping duty on import of solar cells and modules. In the past two months, Goyal has stated more than once that domestic solar power equipment manufacturing capacity of 700-800 MW was not sufficient to meet the government's ambitious plans of adding more power generation capacity through renewable energy sources. Nitin Gadkari, another key minister in the new government, had written to the commerce minister in June opposing plans to levy anti-dumping duties, saying this would escalate the cost of  solar power in the country.
In a note submitted to the Finance Ministry in August, India’s Associated Chamber of Commerce & Ministry of India (ASSOCHAM) stated that if anti-dumping duties were imposed, the project cost for the solar industry would increase anywhere from 20% to 75%. Another 17 GW is to be installed to achieve the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission target of 20 GW by 2022. The proposed anti-dumping duties would have increase the total project cost by almost €2.8 billion (INR 221.2 billion) to nearly €11 billion (INR 875 billion), according to ASSOCHAM.
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ISS secures financing for 200 MW of solar farms in North Carolina

Innovative Solar Systems (ISS) has obtained construction financing for more than 200 MW of already approved and construction ready solar farms in North Carolina.
ISS CEO John Green said construction would start almost immediately on the projects. The leading North Carolina-based solar farm project developer is now seeking credit-worthy entities willing to sign letters of intent (LOI) to buy and own the projects.
According to Green, experience has shown that investors and buyers of large-scale solar farms prefer to purchase projects once they’re built rather than assuming all of the risk and financing on the front end, so the company is confident that buyers will step forward quickly to sign LOIs.
ISS is offering clients projects of 20 MW and larger that can be purchased at cash on delivery (COD) with nothing upfront except an LOI indicating intent to purchase a given project at a given price once the project is completed and ready for commissioning.
“Wealth management, hedge funds, equity groups and private as well as institutional size investors seem to be more able and willing to purchase large solar farm projects when all of the guess work is taken out of the transaction and the purchase is being made at COD and at a not to exceed price,” ISS said.

 
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