Solar Energy-Solar Mounting Systems: 2015

2015年11月12日星期四

UK solar and energy storage: Market enters new phase

The British Photovoltaic Association (BPVA) recently published a report titled Solar and Storage: Study of the Market Potential for Energy Storage in the UK Residential PV Sector. The focus on the residential sector is justified due to the huge success of the U.K.'s feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme, the BPVA says.

According to the latest statistics published by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), since the introduction of the FIT scheme in 2010, the U.K. has installed 3.167 GW of solar PV. An additional 3.630 GW of photovoltaics has been installed via the Renewables Obligation Scheme, while 1.027 GW of solar PV installations are not yet accredited, the DECC reported at the end of October.

BPVA’s report examines the status of energy storage in the U.K. PV market supply chain by means of surveying PV installers and interviewing component distributors on current levels of demand and their plans for the future. Contrary to Germany, the U.S., Japan and other countries where the components of a PV system are often manufactured locally, the U.K. imports it all, says the BPVA, making installers and distributors the key links in the U.K. value chain.

The timing of the report's publication couldn't be more successful following the U.K. government's proposal in August to drastically reduce FITs by as much as 87%. Moreover, last week, the U.K. power grid faced an unprecedented test when power generation expectations did not meet the demand requirements sending the wholesale electricity prices escalating. The National Grid, which owns and maintains the high-voltage electricity transmission network in England and Wales and balances supply with demand on a minute-by-minute basis, was forced to pay £2,500 per megawatt hour to Severn Power for releasing emergency supplies via its gas station. The common rate in such cases is around £60. The National Grid also urged large power consumers, such as factories and hospitals, to go offline by switching to back-up diesel generators.

Likely affecting the BPVA study’s current outlook was its timing: Many of the surveyed installers and distributors had provided their answers before the proposal of the FITs cuts by the DECC. Nevertheless, the study offers a good review of the critical role energy storage plays in the transformation and survival of the U.K. PV market.

The emerging UK PV and storage market

BPVA’s report suggests that through the tapering of the FITs, the U.K. residential PV market is currently in a transitional phase. Where before the anticipated FITs cuts, the main motivation to install PV was to make money, the new drivers to install PV is to satisfy electricity needs as well as financial security from the exposure to electricity price fluctuation.

U.K. retail electricity rates are not as high as in Germany, where the market for energy storage is growing, the BPVA notes. However, consumer confidence in the U.K.’s “Big Six"utilities (British Gas, E.ON, EDF, Scottish Power, Southern Energy and Npower) “is at all-time low, as profits of these firms have increased tenfold, between 2007-13, while consumers across the U.K. have faced bigger bills,” the report says.

A crucial question that the BPVA report attempts to answer concerns the payback period for solar PV and energy storage systems. This depends on many variables such the price of the PV system, the storage technology cost, the installation costs, the existence and size of the FITs and whether the customer uses other energy management devices. Under the emerging business model, customers will need to optimize their entire systems so that they satisfy their purpose, which is to provide energy autonomy. Often this would require a smaller PV array combined with similar size battery and energy monitoring devices, and the cost of all these components affects the overall payback timeframe.

Assuming the total cost of a 3.5 kW PV and 4 kWh battery system in 2016 is £8250, the BPVA report has developed three payback scenarios. Under the first scenario, the FIT is £0.0163 per kWh, which is the DECC’s proposal, and electricity retail rates rise to 2030 in alignment with DECC’s low forecast. In this case, the payback period is under 15 years.

Similarly, the second scenario assumes the same FIT but a retail electricity price in 2030 that aligns with DECC’s medium forecast. The third scenario also assumes the suggested FIT by DECC and a retail electricity price to 2030 that aligns with DECC’s high forecast. Payback periods in the second and third scenarios are under 14 and 12 years, respectively.

These three scenarios justify an installer’s response to the BPVA survey. “Like solar PV before the FIT subsidies were introduced, energy storage systems are being taken up by adventurous early adopters who tend to be technology savvy and can afford these systems and the payback times.”

The majority of the installers appear to understand the transition of the U.K. PV market to one that offers the PV array as part of a larger system. While the survey found that only about 30% of installers presently offer energy storage solutions with inverters, 40% of installers plan to do so within one year. The majority of the surveyed installers also confirm that energy storage solutions attract more new system owners than retrofitting them to old installations. However, most of them express the need for more independent information and appear keen to learn more about storage solutions. Payback timeframes is a major concern for all installers and the BPVA notes that even a single payment handout to storage system buyers from the state would boost the market.

Grid balancing fees for storage installations

The report points out that a number of small home battery systems can be aggregated to act as a single grid resource, enabling these systems to offer grid-balancing services. The primary function of a residential energy storage system is naturally to optimize the household’s self-consumption. However, should the policy enable power distribution networks to develop incentives and offer payments to aggregated battery systems for balancing services, this could generate further income for storage owners attracting investment in this market segment. And although the BPVA report was published earlier than last week’s incident at the power grid, it shows that the U.K. economy would benefit more from energy storage than from asking large power consumers to switch on polluting diesel generators.

The BPVA study will be updated twice a year to report on the latest PV and energy storage updates.

The Energy Storage Update Europe Forum, which takes place in London Nov. 30 - Dec. 1, will discuss the latest developments in European energy storage policies and opportunities. pv magazine will be on hand to report on it.

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California utilities agency increases efficiency with new storage system

The Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA) in California has launched a landmark water-energy project using advanced energy storage systems to integrate solar, wind, biogas and grid resources with the aim of optimizing renewable generation, reducing demand on the electric grid and lowering energy costs.

As part of what it describes as a “first-of-its-kind project,” IEUA will install approximately 3.5 MW of advanced energy storage systems at its regional water-recycling facilities and pump stations in Southern California. The agency has signed an agreement with San Francisco-based Advanced Microgrid Solutions (AMS) to design, install and manage the project.

The energy storage systems will range in size from 150 kW to 1,250 kW and will be custom-designed to optimize IEUA's on-site generation including solar, wind and biogas resources. The batteries will store excess renewable energy and use stored energy to power facilities when demand on the electric grid is high. IEUA said the energy storage systems would also provide “an added layer of protection against outages and enhance the agency's ability to share the benefits of renewable resources between facilities.”

IEUA Board President Terry Catlin added, "Energy storage is the key to maximizing the value of those investments, allowing us to use our resources more efficiently, reduce costs for our customers and participate in building a more resilient electric grid for the whole region."

Describing the project as “groundbreaking,” AMS CEO Susan Kennedy said it was “designed to optimize energy resources in the management, treatment and distribution of water while enhancing the reliability and resiliency of both the electric grid and water management systems."

Integrating IEUA's on-site renewable energy resources will reduce its peak demand from the grid by as much as 14% and reduce total energy costs by 5-10%, the agency added, stressing that the ability to store excess energy also provides “the most cost-effective means of sharing on-site renewable generation from among its facilities and provides an added layer of reliability for critical equipment in the event of power outages.”

AMS will use Tesla’s Powerpack commercial battery systems for the project.

"We've invested heavily in clean, efficient resources," Catlin said. "Using energy storage to optimize those resources and dynamically control consumption is the next crucial step forward in IEUA's strategic energy plan to go ‘gridless' by 2020 with almost no capital outlay by the agency.”

According to the California Energy Commission, the transportation and treatment of water, treatment and disposal of wastewater, and the energy used to heat and consume water account for nearly 20% of the total electricity and 30% of non-power plant related natural gas consumed in California.

The Inland Empire Utilities Agency covers 242-square miles (627 square kilometers), distributes imported water, provides industrial and municipal wastewater collection and treatment services and other related utility services to more than 830,000 people through its member agencies, which include Chino, Chino Hills, Cucamonga Valley Water District, Fontana, Fontana Water Company, Montclair, Monte Vista Water District, Ontario and Upland.

Iran to host 1.25 GW solar PV project, reports Bloomberg

Bloomberg has reported information from Iranian news agency Mehr that a Germany company has signed a deal to build 1.25 GW of solar PV capacity near to the nation’s capital, Tehran.

The report does not name the company involved, but does reveal that "several solar power plants" will be built in the Tehran province, according to information relayed by Ali Barband, the managing director of Great Tehran Electrical Distribution Co.

A tranche of 500 MW solar PV plants will also be built in the cities of Karaj, Kahrizak and Varamin, with the German company’s involvement including full financing of the projects in exchange for long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and a 20-year lease on land at a low price.

In July a historic deal was struck that is likely to lead to the lifting of sanctions in the country from next year. This, Bloomberg suggests, could herald the return of international companies to various sectors, including Iran’s underserved energy sector.

The country has a previously stated its aim of installing 5 GW of renewable energy by 2020, and hopes to source 94% of its energy from clean sources in the future. According to Mehr news agency, the German developer will begin construction of the first solar PV plant early next year, with a completion and connection date scheduled for May 2016.

IHS: 272 GW of solar installs from 2016 - 2019

According to IHS, a total of 272.4 GW of solar PV will be installed worldwide over the next three years. Broken down, 2016 is set to see installations totaling 65 GW, while 65.5 GW are expected to be installed in 2017, 68.4 GW in 2018 and 73.5 GW in 2019. For this year, the market analysts recently raised their forecasts from 57.3 to 58.7 GW.

Looking to next year, IHS says the top five markets will comprise China, the U.S., Japan, India and the U.K. "Strong" PV production and shipments are anticipated in 1H, particularly in China and the U.S., due to various policy measures, like the expiring U.S. ITC tax credit and installation deadlines. This demand, coupled with supply restrictions from the trade disputes, is expected to see prices remaining stable for the first half of the year.

The analysts see solar PV module production going from just under 180 GW in Q4 2015, to just under 170 GW in Q1 2016, and then climbing to nearly 180 GW in Q2. Average selling prices (ASPs) during this period are expected to stay flat at just under US$0.60/Wp. Going into H2, ASPs are forecast to fall. 2017 is set to experience a "slump," says IHS, which will negatively impact ASPs and margins in 2H 2016.

"There will be some buildup of inventory, and module price declines will be much heavier than they were in 2015 and during the first half of 2016. A slump in global PV demand in 2017 looks increasingly likely, as the United States is expected to suffer a major decline in 2017, following planned significant reductions in the country’s investment tax credit," comments Edurne Zoco, senior manager and principal analyst, IHS Technology.

He adds that an around 7.8 GW decline in annual utility-scale installations will be seen in 2017, although the rest of the market will grow by 11%. "It’s important to note that new policy regulations and incentives in other global markets could mitigate some of the forecasted slowing growth in 2017," Zoco concludes.

2015年10月24日星期六

Building Energy sees 'huge potential' in South Africa

Italian renewable energy group Building Energy looks set to remained active in South Africa after recently playing host to the country’s minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane at the company’s headquarters in Milan.

Building Energy, a globally integrated independent power producer, has developed and manages more than 30 projects in South Africa and Central Africa, including the 81 MW Kathu solar farm in the Northern Cape, one of the biggest PV plants on the continent. The group also operates wind, biomass and hydro-electric projects in the country, including the 14 MW biomass plant in Mkuze, the first and largest biomass plant in Africa.

In April, Building Energy won preferred bidder status in the fourth round of South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPP) for the development of a 140 MW wind project in Roggeveld, an area between the Northern and Western Cape Provinces, and a 4.7 MW small-hydro project in Kruisvallei, in the Free State Province.

Nkoana-Mashabane said South Africa was “focusing its attention on the environment, maintaining all the goals that were set for the improvement of the energy mix and the increase in the use of clean energy, and will be one of the main players in the upcoming COP21. We are aware of the role that foreign companies, like Building Energy, play in South Africa and we’re working to keep all our commitments in order to guarantee that their investments will profit.”

Building Energy has also been active with a number of initiatives in the country. In May, the company sponsored the African Utility Week and Clean Power Africa in Cape Town, a global conference and trade exhibition for the power and water utility industry. It has also been a key participant in the South Africa-Italy Summit for the past two years.

Building Energy CEO Fabrizio Zago called Nkoana-Mashabane’s visit to the company’s Milan headquarters a “tangible sign of the good relationship” the group has with South Africa. The country “represents a market with a huge potential for companies operating in the renewable energy sector” thanks to its rich resources and the governmental programs for clean energy development, he added.

Building Energy has a current pipeline in 24 countries with more than 2.9 GW and generative assets being built over the next two years of more than 500 MW.

In June, the company announced a $200 million plan to build two solar PV plants in the northern Egyptian area of Benban with a combined capacity of 50 MW.

New York State quietly lifts the cap on net metering

New York State quietly lifts the cap on net metering

New York is making headlines for its bold moves to restructure its distribution grid and utilities through the Reforming the Energy Vision (REV) process. And as the details of this ambitious multi-year process are hammered out, the state is making it clear that distributed solar will continue to move forward under existing policies.

Without fanfare, on October 16 the New York Public Service Commission (NYPSC) ruled that utilities must continue to enroll solar PV systems in the state's net metering program, regardless of existing caps, until the REV process determines a new way to value the electricity those systems produce.

In the order, NYSPC references previous rulings which find that net metering should not be put on hold until a successor program can be implemented. This decision was spurred by a petition from Orange and Rockland Utilities, which warned that it was close to a program cap of 6% of load and requested to stop accepting applications when that level was reached.

Despite the language about a successor program, NYPSC has indicated a preference for not only keeping but expanding a form of net metering during the REV process.

“The convention of net metering has proven a very successful tool to support the growth of the solar industry, and Staff recommends that it continue to be used,” noted NYPSC staff in a REV white paper issued in July.

“Further, a bill-crediting transactional mechanism, similar to that used in net metering, should be considered for distributed energy resources, beyond those to which net metering already applies, that transact with the system either through actions that respond to DSP requests for service, or through the ability to inject power into the system.”

However, it also indicated that the valuation would be different. “The level of compensation should be more accurately defined for larger projects,” stated NYPSC staff. “The current convention of crediting at the average retail rate may be either too little or too much based on the nature of the resource and its location.”

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Demand begins to exceed supply for multicrystalline silicon PV

For the last four years, the global solar PV market has been in a state of persistent oversupply along the value chain, which pushed down prices mercilessly and drove many manufacturers out of business.

However, on Thursday EnergyTrend published an analysis which adds to a growing consensus that this oversupply is ending. The company reports that prices are rising for all multicrystalline silicon solar products from wafers to cells to modules and that the output of tier one PV module makers has been purchased through the end of 2015.

EnergyTrend cites strong demand from the world's three largest markets: The U.S., China and Japan. This warning comes only days after GTM Research issued a report describing a module capacity shortfall which is already beginning. GTM expects the global module excess capacity ratio to fall below 30% in 2015, the first time it has been this low in many years, and for this to lead to shortages as early as 2016.

GTM also says that it is starting to see price impacts. "We're definitely seeing impacts on a regional basis, meaning markets that are high-demand markets, especially in Q4," GTM Research Solar Analyst Jade Jones told pv magazine.

"In the U.S. we are going to see more price stability instead of decline," explains Jones. "For China, we are likely to see prices increase quarter-over-quarter in Q4."

Equipment sales began responding to these changing circumstances as early as the second quarter of 2015, with SEMI reporting a PV equipment book-to-bill ratio of 1.58, its highest level in four years. GTM Research says that this is just the beginning.

"In general, what we are going to need to see in the next few years is capacity investments being more aggressive along the value chain," predicts Jones.

EnergyTrend says that for multicrystalline products, wafers are seeing the biggest price increases. This follows on a warning by wafer maker Green Energy Technologies three weeks ago that there may not be enough multicrystalline silicon wafer capacity to meet demand in 2016.

Notably, EnergyTrend reports very different circumstances for monocrystalline silicon products. The company estimates monocrystalline wafer prices have fallen more than 10% since the beginning of the year, and says that monocrystalline silicon wafer capacity of 14 GW is well above demand projected under 10 GW.

EnergyTrend expects demand for monocrystalline products to increase in 2016, stating that greater use in utility-scale solar projects and increased maturity of passivated emitter rear contact (PERC) technology for mono cells will both be factors.

The company also says that prices have not fallen as much for n-type mono wafers as compared to p-type.

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